Rayo Vallecano — Racing Santander: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.8% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.5% / 38.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.6% / 17.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.8% / 41.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.4% / 63.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Rayo Vallecano
18th place · 1 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.08.2026 away Barcelona 2:5
- 20.08.2026 home Alaves 1:1
- 15.08.2026 away Sevilla 1:2
- 23.05.2026 away Alaves 2:1
- 17.05.2026 home Villarreal 2:0
Racing Santander
10th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.08.2026 home Elche 3:2
- 23.08.2026 away Getafe 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home Villarreal 2:2
- 31.05.2026 home Cadiz 4:1
- 24.05.2026 away Malaga 1:1
This season: Rayo Vallecano at home vs Racing Santander away
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano · at home | Racing Santander · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.42 | 1.30 |
| xG against per match | 2.00 | 1.24 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 20.07.2020 Racing Santander 1:2 Rayo Vallecano
- 13.09.2019 Rayo Vallecano 2:0 Racing Santander
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Rayo Vallecano host Racing Santander in LaLiga on 5 September 2026, with the available assessment giving the home side a slight edge. The signal points towards a result that protects against an away win, while the overall balance remains competitive rather than heavily one-sided. Rayo Vallecano’s home advantage is the main factor separating the teams in this outlook, but Racing Santander remain capable of staying involved throughout the match.
The game is expected to produce a moderate level of scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes a controlled but open contest more plausible than either an especially defensive match or a high-scoring exchange. The leading scoreline is 1-1, followed by 2-1 and 2-0, reflecting the narrow margin between the sides and the possibility that Rayo Vallecano could turn territorial advantage into a home victory. Overall, the forecast favours Rayo Vallecano without treating the result as decisive.
What matters before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano Goalkeeping Update
Rayo Vallecano goalkeeper Augusto Batalla is sidelined with an injury, prompting the club to sign goalkeeper Emil Audero on loan from Como.
Rayo Vallecano Squad News
Rayo Vallecano head coach Beñat San José included Rayane in the matchday squad to face Racing Santander.
Recent Form for Racing Santander
Racing Santander head into the match against Rayo Vallecano following a victory over Elche in their previous LaLiga fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.