Real Betis Seville — Real Madrid: Win probabilities, 04.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 31.2% |
| 12 | 82.9% | |
| X2 | 85.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.6% / 36.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.5% / 2.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.4% / 10.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.8% / 27.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.3% / 47.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.8% / 67.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.2% / 81.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.09.2026
Real Betis Seville
7th place · 6 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Levante 2:5
- 25.08.2026 away Valencia 1:0
- 21.08.2026 home Sociedad 1:0
- 23.05.2026 home Levante 2:1
- 17.05.2026 away Barcelona 1:3
Real Madrid
2nd place · 9 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Malaga 4:0
- 26.08.2026 home Sociedad 4:1
- 22.08.2026 away Espanol 2:1
- 23.05.2026 home Ath Bilbao 4:2
- 17.05.2026 away Sevilla 1:0
This season: Real Betis Seville at home vs Real Madrid away
| Metric | Real Betis Seville · at home | Real Madrid · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.24 | 2.70 |
| xG against per match | 1.36 | 1.05 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 24.04.2026 Real Betis Seville 1:1 Real Madrid
- 04.01.2026 Real Madrid 5:1 Real Betis Seville
- 01.03.2025 Real Betis Seville 2:1 Real Madrid
- 01.09.2024 Real Madrid 2:0 Real Betis Seville
- 25.05.2024 Real Madrid 0:0 Real Betis Seville
- 09.12.2023 Real Betis Seville 1:1 Real Madrid
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Real Betis Seville face Real Madrid in a LaLiga contest where the visitors hold the clearer overall edge. Real Madrid look clearly stronger, although the assessment carries moderate confidence rather than pointing to an assured outcome. The balance of the available signals favours an away win, with Real Betis Seville facing a demanding task against a side rated more highly for this matchup.
The game is also expected to have an open, high-scoring character. Both teams are considered likely to score, which suggests Real Betis Seville may have opportunities even if Real Madrid remain the more convincing attacking force. The central question is whether the hosts can turn those chances into enough goals to stay level with the visitors over the full match. A competitive scoreline is plausible, but the overall expectation remains that Real Madrid's greater strength should give them the advantage.
What matters before kick-off
Real Madrid's strong start in LaLiga
Real Madrid enter Matchday 4 with three wins from three matches, scoring 10 goals and conceding twice.
Real Betis look to bounce back
Real Betis enter the match with two wins and one defeat in LaLiga, seeking a response after a 5-2 loss to Levante last weekend.
Real Madrid squad absences
Real Madrid prepared for the match against Betis without Éder Militão, Rodrygo, and Aurélien Tchouaméni, who trained individually.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.