Real Sociedad San Sebastian — RC Celta de Vigo: Win probabilities, 03.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.6% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.4% / 19.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.5% / 66.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 03.09.2026
Real Sociedad San Sebastian
13th place · 3 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Espanol 2:1
- 26.08.2026 away Real Madrid 1:4
- 21.08.2026 away Betis 0:1
- 23.05.2026 away Espanol 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Valencia 3:4
RC Celta de Vigo
16th place · 2 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Ath Bilbao 0:2
- 27.08.2026 home Osasuna 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Valencia 0:0
- 16.08.2026 home Osasuna 0:0
- 23.05.2026 home Sevilla 1:0
This season: Real Sociedad San Sebastian at home vs RC Celta de Vigo away
| Metric | Real Sociedad San Sebastian · at home | RC Celta de Vigo · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.66 | 0.66 |
| xG against per match | 0.76 | 0.58 |
| Shots on target per match | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.01.2026 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 3:1 RC Celta de Vigo
- 19.10.2025 RC Celta de Vigo 1:1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
- 13.05.2025 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 0:1 RC Celta de Vigo
- 21.12.2024 RC Celta de Vigo 2:0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
- 20.01.2024 RC Celta de Vigo 0:1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
- 19.08.2023 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 1:1 RC Celta de Vigo
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Real Sociedad San Sebastian enter this LaLiga meeting with a slight edge over RC Celta de Vigo, and the available assessment gives that view a high level of confidence. The matchup points towards a balanced contest in which the home side has the stronger overall position, but the margin between the teams is not expected to be wide. That makes the result more likely to remain competitive, with a draw still a meaningful possibility.
The expected scoring profile is medium-scoring rather than an open shootout. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the match could develop in either direction depending on which side makes better use of its opportunities. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 1:0, reflecting a close game with Real Sociedad San Sebastian marginally better placed. The main analytical signal is therefore 1X: the hosts have the advantage, while the draw remains a realistic outcome.
What matters before kick-off
LaLiga fixture at Reale Arena
Real Sociedad face RC Celta de Vigo on 3 September 2026 in LaLiga at the Reale Arena in San Sebastian.
Previous head-to-head meeting
In their previous head-to-head meeting in January 2026, Real Sociedad secured a 3-1 win over Celta Vigo.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.