Real Sociedad San Sebastian — RC Celta de Vigo: Win probabilities, 03.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.6% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.4% / 19.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.5% / 66.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Real Sociedad San Sebastian enter this LaLiga meeting with a slight edge over RC Celta de Vigo, and the available assessment gives that view a high level of confidence. The matchup points towards a balanced contest in which the home side has the stronger overall position, but the margin between the teams is not expected to be wide. That makes the result more likely to remain competitive, with a draw still a meaningful possibility.
The expected scoring profile is medium-scoring rather than an open shootout. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the match could develop in either direction depending on which side makes better use of its opportunities. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 1:0, reflecting a close game with Real Sociedad San Sebastian marginally better placed. The main analytical signal is therefore 1X: the hosts have the advantage, while the draw remains a realistic outcome.
What matters before kick-off
LaLiga fixture at Reale Arena
Real Sociedad face RC Celta de Vigo on 3 September 2026 in LaLiga at the Reale Arena in San Sebastian.
Previous head-to-head meeting
In their previous head-to-head meeting in January 2026, Real Sociedad secured a 3-1 win over Celta Vigo.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.