Athletic Bilbao — Atletico Madrid: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.5% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 68.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.1% / 41.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Athletic Bilbao
13th place · 3 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Celta 2:0
- 27.08.2026 away Barcelona 0:2
- 22.08.2026 home Sevilla 1:3
- 23.05.2026 away Real Madrid 2:4
- 17.05.2026 home Celta 1:1
Atletico Madrid
5th place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Sevilla 3:1
- 23.08.2026 home Villarreal 2:2
- 19.08.2026 home Malaga 2:0
- 24.05.2026 away Villarreal 1:5
- 17.05.2026 home Girona 1:0
This season: Athletic Bilbao at home vs Atletico Madrid away
| Metric | Athletic Bilbao · at home | Atletico Madrid · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.25 | 0.93 |
| xG against per match | 0.41 | 0.89 |
| Shots on target per match | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.04.2026 Atletico Madrid 3:2 Athletic Bilbao
- 06.12.2025 Athletic Bilbao 1:0 Atletico Madrid
- 01.03.2025 Atletico Madrid 1:0 Athletic Bilbao
- 31.08.2024 Athletic Bilbao 0:1 Atletico Madrid
- 27.04.2024 Atletico Madrid 3:1 Athletic Bilbao
- 16.12.2023 Athletic Bilbao 2:0 Atletico Madrid
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid meet in LaLiga on 5 September, with the available assessment pointing to a balanced contest. Neither side has a clear overall advantage, and the moderate confidence reflects the narrow margin between them. The match is expected to produce a medium level of scoring rather than becoming a particularly open encounter.
Both teams are likely to find the net, which suggests that the game could develop through periods of pressure at both ends. Athletic Bilbao should have reasons to attack on home ground, while Atletico Madrid appear to hold a slight edge in the broader market signal, particularly in avoiding defeat. Even so, the teams are evenly matched enough that a draw remains a credible outcome, and the result may depend on which side manages the key moments more effectively.
What matters before kick-off
Recent LaLiga Results
Athletic Bilbao secured their first LaLiga win of the season by beating Celta Vigo 2-0 away. Atletico Madrid remain unbeaten through their opening three matches after defeating Sevilla 3-1 in their last fixture.
Julian Alvarez Returns to Atletico Squad
Atletico Madrid forward Julian Alvarez returned to the matchday squad for the fixture against Athletic Club after missing the previous game due to illness.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.