Espanyol Barcelona — Sevilla FC: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.6% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 59.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.0% / 9.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.5% / 26.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.3% / 74.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Espanyol Barcelona host Sevilla FC in LaLiga on 6 September 2026, with the assessment giving the home side a slight edge and a high level of confidence. The projected game profile is medium-scoring, suggesting a match with some attacking intent but without a strong indication of an open contest. The overall signal also favours the hosts avoiding defeat.
Sevilla FC remain sufficiently competitive for the draw to be a significant possibility, and both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced rather than clearly favoured. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 0:0, which points to a match likely to be decided by small margins or not decided at all. Espanyol Barcelona have the stronger position in the preview, but Sevilla FC’s presence keeps the outcome finely balanced.
What matters before kick-off
Manolo González's 100th match
Espanyol head coach Manolo González reaches his 100th official match in charge of the Catalan club in the fixture against Sevilla.
Bryan Zaragoza's first squad call-up
Winger Bryan Zaragoza has been included in Espanyol's matchday squad for the first time ahead of their LaLiga clash against Sevilla following his transfer.
Leandro Cabrera returns
Espanyol captain Leandro Cabrera is available for selection once again after serving a three-match suspension.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.