Getafe CF — RC Celta de Vigo: Win probabilities, 07.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.1% |
| 12 | 65.5% | |
| X2 | 63.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 39.2% / 60.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 83.8% / 16.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 58.4% / 41.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 30.0% / 70.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 12.8% / 87.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.4% / 98.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Getafe CF and RC Celta de Vigo appear evenly matched ahead of their LaLiga meeting. The available assessment points to a cautious contest, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. That balance should encourage a measured approach, particularly in the opening stages, as both teams look to avoid giving the opponent an early opportunity.
The expected profile is low-scoring, and a clean sheet is considered likely. This suggests that defensive organisation may have greater influence than sustained attacking pressure, with limited space and few clear chances potentially shaping the game. A draw is a credible outcome, while Getafe CF have a slight edge in the broader result pattern through the possibility of either a home win or a stalemate. The main expectation remains a close match in which small details could decide whether it finishes level or narrowly favours the hosts.
What matters before kick-off
Recent League Results
In their previous LaLiga fixtures, Getafe suffered a 1-0 away defeat to Osasuna, while Celta Vigo drew 0-0 against Real Sociedad.
Early Season Goal Record
Both Getafe and Celta Vigo scored just one goal in their opening LaLiga matches of the 2026/2027 season heading into this fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.