Elche CF — Real Sociedad San Sebastian: Win probabilities, 07.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.2% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 73.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.9% / 38.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.7% / 17.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.2% / 40.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.8% / 63.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.6% / 80.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Elche CF face Real Sociedad San Sebastian in a LaLiga fixture that points towards a competitive but open contest. The assessment gives Real Sociedad San Sebastian a slight edge, although the balance is not strong enough to suggest a one-sided match. Elche CF should remain involved, particularly in a game where both teams are considered likely to score.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, with the main possibilities ranging from a draw to a narrow away victory. A level scoreline would fit the overall competitiveness of the matchup, while Real Sociedad San Sebastian have the stronger position among the outcome options. Elche CF will need to limit the visitors' opportunities and make their own attacking moments count, as the available signals favour a result that keeps the away side unbeaten. The central scenario is therefore a close match with goals at both ends and a slight advantage for Real Sociedad San Sebastian.
What matters before kick-off
Real Sociedad team news
Real Sociedad enter the match missing Álvaro Odriozola and Pablo Marín through injury, while Jon Pacheco is available again.
Teams' recent match results
Elche are seeking their first victory of the 2026/27 LaLiga season following a 2-3 loss to Racing Santander, while Real Sociedad drew 0-0 against Celta Vigo in their previous league match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.