Villarreal CF — Espanyol Barcelona: Win probabilities, 30.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
66.6%
Home win
Villarreal CF
X
19.3%
Draw
W2
14.1%
Away win
Espanyol Barcelona
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X85.9%
Both teams to score
Yes58.6%
Totals 2.5
Over65.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.9% |
| 12 | 80.7% | |
| X2 | 33.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.6% / 41.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.8% / 14.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.8% / 34.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.9% / 56.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.4% / 74.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.8% / 87.2% |
Goal distribution model
Villarreal CF × Espanyol Barcelona
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.0%
0:1
2.8%
0:2
1.8%
0:3
0.6%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
7.4%
1:1
8.8%
1:2
4.2%
1:3
1.4%
1:4
0.4%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.5%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
4.9%
2:3
1.7%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
7.5%
3:1
7.6%
3:2
3.9%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
4.4%
4:1
4.5%
4:2
2.3%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
2.1%
5:1
2.1%
5:2
1.1%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.7%
2:09.5%
1:18.8%
3:17.6%
3:07.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.10.2026
Villarreal CF
10th place · 12 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Valencia 2:1
- 17.10.2026 home Elche 0:0
- 10.10.2026 away Real Madrid 0:1
- 20.09.2026 home Levante 3:1
- 17.09.2026 away Malaga 3:1
Espanyol Barcelona
18th place · 8 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Santander 1:2
- 17.10.2026 home Ath Madrid 0:1
- 09.10.2026 away Malaga 1:1
- 18.09.2026 home Elche 1:3
- 15.09.2026 away Vallecano 1:2
This season: Villarreal CF at home vs Espanyol Barcelona away
| Metric | Villarreal CF · at home | Espanyol Barcelona · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–2 | 1–1–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| xG for per match | 2.44 | 1.07 |
| xG against per match | 1.28 | 1.46 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.75 | 3.20 |
| Corners per match | 7.75 | 3.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 80% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Villarreal CF wins6
Draws0
Espanyol Barcelona wins0
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 09.02.2026 Villarreal CF 4:1 Espanyol Barcelona
- 08.11.2025 Espanyol Barcelona 0:2 Villarreal CF
- 27.04.2025 Villarreal CF 1:0 Espanyol Barcelona
- 26.09.2024 Espanyol Barcelona 1:2 Villarreal CF
- 27.04.2023 Villarreal CF 4:2 Espanyol Barcelona
- 09.11.2022 Espanyol Barcelona 0:1 Villarreal CF
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 5.75 → now 6.00 |
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