Racing Santander — Real Madrid: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
8.6%
Home win
Racing Santander
X
13.5%
Draw
W2
77.9%
Away win
Real Madrid
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X291.4%
Both teams to score
Yes67.0%
Totals 2.5
Over82.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 22.1% |
| 12 | 86.5% | |
| X2 | 91.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.0% / 33.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.1% / 1.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 82.5% / 17.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 65.6% / 34.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 46.6% / 53.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 29.5% / 70.5% |
Goal distribution model
Racing Santander × Real Madrid
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
1.9%
0:1
3.0%
0:2
6.2%
0:3
6.9%
0:4
5.8%
0:5
3.8%
1
1:0
0.5%
1:1
5.1%
1:2
7.2%
1:3
8.0%
1:4
6.7%
1:5
4.4%
2
2:0
0.8%
2:1
2.5%
2:2
4.2%
2:3
4.7%
2:4
3.9%
2:5
2.6%
3
3:0
0.3%
3:1
1.0%
3:2
1.6%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
1.5%
3:5
1.0%
4
4:0
0.1%
4:1
0.3%
4:2
0.5%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.3%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:38.0%
1:27.2%
0:36.9%
1:46.7%
0:26.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Racing Santander
13th place · 11 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Espanol 2:1
- 18.10.2026 away Osasuna 0:2
- 11.10.2026 home Valencia 2:2
- 19.09.2026 away Celta 0:5
- 16.09.2026 away Barcelona 2:7
Real Madrid
3rd place · 24 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Barcelona 2:1
- 18.10.2026 home Sevilla 4:1
- 10.10.2026 home Villarreal 1:0
- 20.09.2026 away Ath Madrid 1:2
- 15.09.2026 away Elche 3:2
This season: Racing Santander at home vs Real Madrid away
| Metric | Racing Santander · at home | Real Madrid · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 3–2–0 | 3–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xG for per match | 1.83 | 2.40 |
| xG against per match | 1.20 | 1.26 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| Corners per match | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 80% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 6.25 → now 6.00 |
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