FC Barcelona — Deportivo Alaves: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
89.4%
Home win
FC Barcelona
X
7.5%
Draw
W2
3.1%
Away win
Deportivo Alaves
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X96.9%
Both teams to score
No52.2%
Totals 2.5
Over80.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 96.9% |
| 12 | 92.5% | |
| X2 | 10.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.5% / 1.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 80.6% / 19.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 43.4% / 56.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 26.7% / 73.3% |
Goal distribution model
FC Barcelona × Deportivo Alaves
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
1.5%
0:1
0.7%
0:2
0.3%
0:3
0.1%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
4.7%
1:1
3.4%
1:2
1.1%
1:3
0.2%
1:4
0.0%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
8.8%
2:1
5.9%
2:2
2.0%
2:3
0.4%
2:4
0.1%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
10.8%
3:1
7.2%
3:2
2.4%
3:3
0.5%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
9.9%
4:1
6.6%
4:2
2.2%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
7.2%
5:1
4.8%
5:2
1.6%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
3:010.8%
4:09.9%
2:08.8%
3:17.2%
5:07.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
FC Barcelona
1st place · 27 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Real Madrid 1:2
- 17.10.2026 away Betis 5:2
- 10.10.2026 home Getafe 3:0
- 19.09.2026 away Sevilla 3:1
- 16.09.2026 home Santander 7:2
Deportivo Alaves
9th place · 12 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.10.2026 home Malaga 1:1
- 18.10.2026 away Celta 1:2
- 10.10.2026 home Ath Madrid 1:2
- 19.09.2026 away Ath Bilbao 0:0
- 15.09.2026 home Valencia 0:1
This season: FC Barcelona at home vs Deportivo Alaves away
| Metric | FC Barcelona · at home | Deportivo Alaves · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 4–0–1 | 0–2–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.60 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| xG for per match | 3.32 | 1.27 |
| xG against per match | 1.08 | 1.26 |
| Shots on target per match | 8.40 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 10.80 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
FC Barcelona wins5
Draws0
Deportivo Alaves wins1
Goals per match2.67
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 13.05.2026 Deportivo Alaves 1:0 FC Barcelona
- 29.11.2025 FC Barcelona 3:1 Deportivo Alaves
- 02.02.2025 FC Barcelona 1:0 Deportivo Alaves
- 06.10.2024 Deportivo Alaves 0:3 FC Barcelona
- 03.02.2024 Deportivo Alaves 1:3 FC Barcelona
- 12.11.2023 FC Barcelona 2:1 Deportivo Alaves
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 10.00 → now 9.00 |
| W2 | was 17.00 → now 19.00 |
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