Elche CF — Valencia CF: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
38.3%
Home win
Elche CF
X
27.8%
Draw
W2
33.8%
Away win
Valencia CF
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1272.2%
Both teams to score
Yes57.4%
Totals 2.5
Over52.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.2% |
| 12 | 72.2% | |
| X2 | 61.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.4% / 42.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.6% / 22.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.3% / 47.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Goal distribution model
Elche CF × Valencia CF
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.5%
0:1
7.1%
0:2
5.6%
0:3
2.5%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
7.8%
1:1
13.2%
1:2
8.0%
1:3
3.6%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.4%
2:1
8.6%
2:2
5.8%
2:3
2.6%
2:4
0.9%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
3.1%
3:1
4.1%
3:2
2.7%
3:3
1.2%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.1%
4:1
1.5%
4:2
1.0%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.2%
2:18.6%
1:28.0%
1:07.8%
0:07.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Elche CF
15th place · 10 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Vallecano 3:0
- 17.10.2026 away Villarreal 0:0
- 11.10.2026 home Celta 0:0
- 18.09.2026 away Espanol 3:1
- 15.09.2026 home Real Madrid 2:3
Valencia CF
19th place · 6 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Villarreal 1:2
- 17.10.2026 home Ath Bilbao 0:0
- 11.10.2026 away Santander 2:2
- 20.09.2026 home Sociedad 2:3
- 15.09.2026 away Alaves 1:0
This season: Elche CF at home vs Valencia CF away
| Metric | Elche CF · at home | Valencia CF · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–3 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.75 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.18 | 0.97 |
| xG against per match | 2.26 | 1.17 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.25 | 2.25 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 4.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Elche CF wins1
Draws2
Valencia CF wins3
Goals per match2.17
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 11.04.2026 Elche CF 1:0 Valencia CF
- 10.01.2026 Valencia CF 1:1 Elche CF
- 23.04.2023 Elche CF 0:2 Valencia CF
- 15.10.2022 Valencia CF 2:2 Elche CF
- 19.03.2022 Elche CF 0:1 Valencia CF
- 11.12.2021 Valencia CF 2:1 Elche CF
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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