Athletic Bilbao — Real Sociedad San Sebastian: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
46.4%
Home win
Athletic Bilbao
X
24.7%
Draw
W2
28.9%
Away win
Real Sociedad San Sebastian
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.3%
Both teams to score
Yes60.6%
Totals 2.5
Over58.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.1% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 53.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.1% / 18.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.5% / 41.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.1% / 63.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.1% / 80.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
Goal distribution model
Athletic Bilbao × Real Sociedad San Sebastian
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.4%
0:1
5.8%
0:2
4.2%
0:3
1.8%
0:4
0.6%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
7.7%
1:1
11.4%
1:2
7.2%
1:3
3.1%
1:4
1.0%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
7.1%
2:1
9.4%
2:2
6.1%
2:3
2.7%
2:4
0.9%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
4.1%
3:1
5.4%
3:2
3.5%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.8%
4:1
2.3%
4:2
1.5%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.6%
5:1
0.8%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.4%
2:19.4%
1:07.7%
1:27.2%
2:07.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Athletic Bilbao
7th place · 13 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Getafe 4:0
- 21.10.2026 away Levante 1:3
- 17.10.2026 away Valencia 0:0
- 10.10.2026 away Vallecano 0:0
- 19.09.2026 home Alaves 0:0
Real Sociedad San Sebastian
5th place · 19 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Levante 2:1
- 18.10.2026 away Malaga 5:2
- 11.10.2026 home La Coruna 3:2
- 20.09.2026 away Valencia 3:2
- 13.09.2026 home Ath Madrid 0:3
This season: Athletic Bilbao at home vs Real Sociedad San Sebastian away
| Metric | Athletic Bilbao · at home | Real Sociedad San Sebastian · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–1 | 3–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| xG for per match | 1.48 | 1.52 |
| xG against per match | 0.55 | 1.93 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| Corners per match | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Athletic Bilbao wins2
Draws2
Real Sociedad San Sebastian wins2
Goals per match2.33
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 01.02.2026 Athletic Bilbao 1:1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
- 01.11.2025 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 3:2 Athletic Bilbao
- 04.05.2025 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 0:0 Athletic Bilbao
- 24.11.2024 Athletic Bilbao 1:0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
- 13.01.2024 Athletic Bilbao 2:1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian
- 30.09.2023 Real Sociedad San Sebastian 3:0 Athletic Bilbao
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 3.40 → now 3.20 |
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