Rayo Vallecano — RC Celta de Vigo: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
41.8%
Home win
Rayo Vallecano
X
28.6%
Draw
W2
29.6%
Away win
RC Celta de Vigo
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1271.4%
Both teams to score
Yes53.4%
Totals 2.5
Under52.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.4% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.1% / 73.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Goal distribution model
Rayo Vallecano × RC Celta de Vigo
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.7%
0:1
7.6%
0:2
5.1%
0:3
2.0%
0:4
0.6%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
9.5%
1:1
13.7%
1:2
7.2%
1:3
2.8%
1:4
0.8%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.6%
2:1
8.9%
2:2
5.2%
2:3
2.0%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
3.6%
3:1
4.2%
3:2
2.4%
3:3
0.9%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.3%
4:1
1.5%
4:2
0.9%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.7%
1:09.5%
2:18.9%
0:08.7%
2:07.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Rayo Vallecano
16th place · 10 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Elche 0:3
- 19.10.2026 away Getafe 1:1
- 10.10.2026 home Ath Bilbao 0:0
- 19.09.2026 away Osasuna 1:1
- 15.09.2026 home Espanol 2:1
RC Celta de Vigo
8th place · 13 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Betis 0:0
- 18.10.2026 home Alaves 2:1
- 11.10.2026 away Elche 0:0
- 19.09.2026 home Santander 5:0
- 13.09.2026 home Malaga 1:1
This season: Rayo Vallecano at home vs RC Celta de Vigo away
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano · at home | RC Celta de Vigo · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–1 | 0–4–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.20 | 0.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.40 | 0.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.32 | 0.61 |
| xG against per match | 1.67 | 0.79 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Rayo Vallecano wins2
Draws3
RC Celta de Vigo wins1
Goals per match1.83
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 18.01.2026 RC Celta de Vigo 3:0 Rayo Vallecano
- 21.09.2025 Rayo Vallecano 1:1 RC Celta de Vigo
- 18.05.2025 RC Celta de Vigo 1:2 Rayo Vallecano
- 10.01.2025 Rayo Vallecano 2:1 RC Celta de Vigo
- 31.03.2024 RC Celta de Vigo 0:0 Rayo Vallecano
- 11.12.2023 Rayo Vallecano 0:0 RC Celta de Vigo
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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