VfB Stuttgart — Borussia Monchengladbach: Win probabilities, 23.10.2026

VfB Stuttgart enter this Bundesliga meeting with a clear advantage over Borussia Monchengladbach, although their own recent form has been inconsistent. Stuttgart have won two and lost three of their last five matches, scoring seven goals and conceding five. They sit 13th after six league games, with six points, so there is room for improvement despite their stronger position relative to their opponents. At home, Stuttgart have won one of two matches, scoring four goals and conceding two. Their attacking output suggests they can create problems, but the balance of chances at home indicates that defensive control remains an important factor.

Borussia Monchengladbach arrive in considerably poorer form, having lost all five of their last matches and conceding 17 goals while scoring eight. They are bottom of the table with no points from six games, and their away record is particularly concerning: three defeats, just one goal scored and ten conceded. Their tendency to allow more chances than they create strengthens the case for Stuttgart to take control of the contest. The previous meeting also favoured Stuttgart, who won 3-0 in 2026, while five of the last six head-to-head encounters produced more than two goals. Overall, Stuttgart are clearly stronger, with a moderate level of confidence in that assessment. An open match with goals from both sides is plausible, but the hosts have the more convincing route to victory.