FSV Mainz — Werder Bremen: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.8% |
| 12 | 77.1% | |
| X2 | 43.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.1% / 36.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.7% / 14.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.8% / 57.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.4% / 75.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
FSV Mainz
5th place · 10 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Schalke 04 1:0
- 10.10.2026 home Leverkusen 3:4
- 19.09.2026 away M'gladbach 4:3
- 12.09.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 1:3
- 06.09.2026 away Hamburg 5:0
Werder Bremen
8th place · 9 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Paderborn 2:2
- 09.10.2026 away Dortmund 2:2
- 19.09.2026 home Augsburg 3:2
- 12.09.2026 away FC Koln 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home RB Leipzig 3:1
This season: FSV Mainz at home vs Werder Bremen away
| Metric | FSV Mainz · at home | Werder Bremen · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–2 | 0–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| xG for per match | 2.07 | 0.91 |
| xG against per match | 1.49 | 2.00 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.33 | 4.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.03.2026 Werder Bremen 0:2 FSV Mainz
- 01.11.2025 FSV Mainz 1:1 Werder Bremen
- 31.01.2025 Werder Bremen 1:0 FSV Mainz
- 15.09.2024 FSV Mainz 1:2 Werder Bremen
- 03.02.2024 FSV Mainz 0:1 Werder Bremen
- 02.09.2023 Werder Bremen 4:0 FSV Mainz
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 4.33 → now 4.50 |
Match preview
FSV Mainz enter this Bundesliga fixture with a slight edge over Werder Bremen, supported by their stronger league position and a positive recent scoring record. They sit fifth with 10 points from six matches, having won three of their last five games and scored 14 goals in that period. However, their home form is a concern: they have yet to win at home this season, recording one draw and two defeats in three matches. Despite those results, FSV Mainz have shown an ability to create more chances than they concede on their own ground, suggesting their performances may offer grounds for improvement.
Werder Bremen arrive in steadier recent form, unbeaten in their last five matches, with two wins and three draws. They have collected nine points and occupy eighth place, keeping them close to FSV Mainz in the standings. Their away record is less convincing, with two draws and one defeat, while their defensive performances on the road have allowed more chances than they create. The previous meeting in 2026 ended in a 2-0 victory for FSV Mainz, although the broader head-to-head record favours Werder Bremen, who have won four of the last six encounters.
Both teams have demonstrated attacking potential, and the balance of recent performances points towards an open contest. FSV Mainz hold a slight advantage, but Werder Bremen's unbeaten run makes them a credible threat.
What matters before kick-off
Mainz injury absences
FSV Mainz enter the match missing goalkeeper Robin Zentner along with Dominik Kohr, Otto Ruoppi, and Silas due to injury.
Werder Bremen injury issues
Werder Bremen face a lengthy injury list that includes Felix Agu, Moussa N'Diaye, Jens Stage, Niklas Stark, and Justin Njinmah.
Werder Bremen's unbeaten run
Werder Bremen enter the game on a five-match unbeaten run in the Bundesliga after coming back from two goals down to draw 2-2 with Paderborn.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.