Match intelligence

Borussia Dortmund — Eintracht Frankfurt: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026

League: Bundesliga (Germany) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Borussia Dortmund1
:
0Eintracht Frankfurt
Locked signal W1 Probability 65.2% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 65.2% Home win Borussia Dortmund
X 18.3% Draw
W2 16.5% Away win Eintracht Frankfurt
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X83.5%
Both teams to score
Yes66.0%
Totals 2.5
Over72.9%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X83.5%
1281.7%
X234.8%
Both teams to scoreYes/No66.0% / 34.0%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 97.4% / 2.6%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 89.5% / 10.5%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 72.9% / 27.1%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 52.4% / 47.6%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 33.0% / 67.0%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 18.3% / 81.7%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Borussia Dortmund × Eintracht Frankfurt
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 2.6%
0:1 2.4%
0:2 1.8%
0:3 0.7%
0:4 0.2%
0:5 0.1%
1
1:0 5.4%
1:1 7.5%
1:2 4.5%
1:3 1.8%
1:4 0.6%
1:5 0.1%
2
2:0 7.3%
2:1 9.1%
2:2 5.7%
2:3 2.4%
2:4 0.7%
2:5 0.2%
3
3:0 6.2%
3:1 7.7%
3:2 4.8%
3:3 2.0%
3:4 0.6%
3:5 0.2%
4
4:0 4.0%
4:1 4.9%
4:2 3.1%
4:3 1.3%
4:4 0.4%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 2.0%
5:1 2.5%
5:2 1.6%
5:3 0.6%
5:4 0.2%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.1%
3:17.7%
1:17.5%
2:07.3%
3:06.2%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026

Borussia Dortmund

2nd place · 14 pts after 6

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 17.10.2026 away Union Berlin 0:0
  • 09.10.2026 home Werder Bremen 2:2
  • 19.09.2026 away Stuttgart 1:0
  • 12.09.2026 home Paderborn 3:0
  • 05.09.2026 away Hoffenheim 3:2

Eintracht Frankfurt

11th place · 8 pts after 6

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 16.10.2026 home FC Koln 1:0
  • 10.10.2026 away RB Leipzig 0:6
  • 19.09.2026 home Freiburg 2:2
  • 12.09.2026 away Mainz 3:1
  • 06.09.2026 home Augsburg 1:4

This season: Borussia Dortmund at home vs Eintracht Frankfurt away

Metric Borussia Dortmund · at home Eintracht Frankfurt · away
Matches33
W–D–L2–1–01–1–1
Goals scored per match2.332.00
Goals conceded per match0.673.33
xG for per match1.861.65
xG against per match0.812.66
Shots on target per match7.675.67
Corners per match6.334.33
Over 2.5 goals67%100%
Both teams scored33%67%

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Borussia Dortmund wins3
Draws2
Eintracht Frankfurt wins1
Goals per match4.17
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
  • 08.05.2026 Borussia Dortmund 3:2 Eintracht Frankfurt
  • 09.01.2026 Eintracht Frankfurt 3:3 Borussia Dortmund
  • 17.01.2025 Eintracht Frankfurt 2:0 Borussia Dortmund
  • 24.08.2024 Borussia Dortmund 2:0 Eintracht Frankfurt
  • 17.03.2024 Borussia Dortmund 3:1 Eintracht Frankfurt
  • 29.10.2023 Eintracht Frankfurt 3:3 Borussia Dortmund

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Borussia Dortmund enter this Bundesliga meeting with Eintracht Frankfurt in the stronger position, backed by consistent results and an effective home record. They have gone unbeaten in their last five matches, recording three wins and two draws while scoring nine goals and conceding four. Sitting second in the table with 14 points from six games, Borussia Dortmund have made a solid start to the season. Their home performances are particularly encouraging, with two wins and a draw from three matches, seven goals scored and only two conceded. They also create clearly more chances than they allow, suggesting a strong foundation for controlling the game.

Eintracht Frankfurt face a more difficult challenge. They occupy 11th place with eight points and have experienced mixed results in their last five matches, winning twice, drawing once and losing twice. Their defensive record is a concern, with 13 goals conceded during that spell. Away from home, they have scored six goals in three games but conceded ten, reflecting a tendency toward open and potentially high-scoring contests. Borussia Dortmund therefore have a clear advantage, although Eintracht Frankfurt possess enough attacking potential to remain a threat. The previous meeting ended 3-2 in Borussia Dortmund's favour, and the overall balance points toward another competitive encounter in which both teams could find the net.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Team news

Borussia Dortmund team news

Borussia Dortmund head coach Niko Kovač confirmed ahead of the match against Eintracht Frankfurt that Kostas Karetsas remains sidelined with an injury.

Schedule

Dortmund's midweek Champions League victory

Ahead of Saturday's Bundesliga clash, Borussia Dortmund secured a 2-1 away victory against Azerbaijani side Sabah FC in Tuesday's UEFA Champions League match.

Match fact

Dortmund's home record against Eintracht

Borussia Dortmund have won 14 of their last 15 home matches in the Bundesliga against Eintracht Frankfurt.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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