1. FC Cologne — Schalke 04: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026

1. FC Cologne have a slight edge over Schalke 04 ahead of their Bundesliga meeting, with their home record providing the clearest reason for cautious optimism. They have collected 7 points from 6 league matches and sit 12th, while Schalke 04 are 15th with 5 points. Although 1. FC Cologne have struggled for consistency recently, losing three of their last five matches, their performances at home have been more encouraging. They remain unbeaten in three home league games, recording two wins and a draw while scoring 6 goals.

Schalke 04 arrive with a mixed recent record of one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five matches. Their defensive numbers are relatively solid across that period, conceding 4 goals, but their away performances raise concerns. They have lost two of three away matches this season and have allowed more chances than they create on the road. This could give 1. FC Cologne opportunities to apply sustained pressure, although their own defensive record suggests that keeping a clean sheet may be difficult.

The head-to-head record also favours 1. FC Cologne, who have won five of the last six meetings, including a 1-0 victory in 2025. With both sides showing vulnerabilities, an open contest is plausible. 1. FC Cologne hold a moderate advantage, but Schalke 04 have enough potential to make the outcome competitive.