SC Paderborn 07 — Hamburger SV: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026

SC Paderborn 07 have a slight home advantage against Hamburger SV, although their recent form suggests this will be a competitive Bundesliga encounter. The hosts have collected just five points from six matches and sit 16th in the table, with only one win in their last five games. Their defensive record is a concern, having conceded nine goals across that run. At home, SC Paderborn 07 have won once and lost twice in three matches, while allowing more chances than they create. These weaknesses make it difficult to view the home side as a clear favourite despite their narrow overall edge.

Hamburger SV arrive in ninth place with nine points from six matches. Their recent results are mixed, with three consecutive wins followed by two defeats, and their defensive vulnerabilities are particularly notable: they have conceded 13 goals in their last five games and nine in three away matches this season. Like their opponents, they tend to allow more chances than they generate on the road. The head-to-head record offers some encouragement for SC Paderborn 07, who have won three of the six meetings, including a 2-0 victory in their last encounter in 2025. With both defences showing weaknesses, goals at both ends appear plausible. SC Paderborn 07 hold a moderate, slight edge, but Hamburger SV have enough potential to make this a closely contested match.