FC Augsburg — Union Berlin: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.6% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 42.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.4% / 34.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.7% / 4.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.6% / 32.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.1% / 72.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.0% / 86.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
FC Augsburg
10th place · 8 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Elversberg 3:4
- 10.10.2026 home Bayern Munich 2:2
- 19.09.2026 away Werder Bremen 2:3
- 12.09.2026 home Leverkusen 2:2
- 06.09.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 4:1
Union Berlin
17th place · 5 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Dortmund 0:0
- 10.10.2026 home Elversberg 1:0
- 18.09.2026 away Bayern Munich 0:7
- 11.09.2026 home Schalke 04 1:3
- 05.09.2026 away Leverkusen 0:4
This season: FC Augsburg at home vs Union Berlin away
| Metric | FC Augsburg · at home | Union Berlin · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–0 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.33 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 5.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.33 | 0.37 |
| xG against per match | 3.05 | 3.44 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.67 | 1.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.05.2026 Union Berlin 4:0 FC Augsburg
- 15.01.2026 FC Augsburg 1:1 Union Berlin
- 17.05.2025 FC Augsburg 1:2 Union Berlin
- 15.01.2025 Union Berlin 0:2 FC Augsburg
- 12.04.2024 FC Augsburg 2:0 Union Berlin
- 25.11.2023 Union Berlin 1:1 FC Augsburg
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.83 → now 1.70 |
| X | was 3.90 → now 4.10 |
| W2 | was 4.10 → now 4.50 |
Match preview
FC Augsburg have a slight edge over Union Berlin heading into this Bundesliga meeting, with their home record offering a stronger foundation than their recent overall form. Augsburg have collected 8 points from 6 matches and sit 10th, while Union Berlin are 17th with 5 points. The hosts have yet to lose at home this season, winning once and drawing twice across three matches. However, their home performances have been vulnerable defensively, with the team allowing clearly more chances than it creates. That limits the strength of their advantage.
Union Berlin arrive in a more difficult position. They have lost three of their last five matches, scoring just 2 goals and conceding 14. Their away record is particularly concerning: two defeats from two games, with 11 goals conceded and none scored. Like Augsburg, they have struggled to control the quality of chances against them, making defensive improvement central to their prospects. The previous meeting, a 4-0 Union Berlin victory in 2026, also serves as a reminder that the visitors can produce a decisive performance against this opponent.
The overall balance favours FC Augsburg, but the defensive weaknesses on both sides leave room for an open contest. Both teams have reasons to expect scoring opportunities, and a narrow home victory or a draw appears consistent with the matchup.
What matters before kick-off
Confirmed Lineups
FC Augsburg and Union Berlin have announced their starting line-ups for the Matchday 7 Bundesliga clash. Michael Gregoritsch leads the line for the hosts, while Tim Skarke starts in attack for the visitors.
Augsburg Winless Streak
FC Augsburg enter the fixture following a 4-3 defeat against SV Elversberg, extending their winless run in the Bundesliga to four matches.
Augsburg Home Record
FC Augsburg remain undefeated at the WWK Arena in the Bundesliga this season, registering one win and two draws in three home matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.