VfB Stuttgart — Borussia Dortmund: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.7% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 59.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 73.7% / 26.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.7% / 9.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.2% / 26.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.6% / 81.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
VfB Stuttgart
14th place · 3 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Hoffenheim 1:2
- 04.09.2026 home FC Koln 4:1
- 28.08.2026 away Bayern Munich 1:5
- 16.05.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 2:2
- 09.05.2026 home Leverkusen 3:1
Borussia Dortmund
3rd place · 9 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Paderborn 3:0
- 05.09.2026 away Hoffenheim 3:2
- 29.08.2026 home Hamburg 2:0
- 16.05.2026 away Werder Bremen 2:0
- 08.05.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 3:2
This season: VfB Stuttgart at home vs Borussia Dortmund away
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart · at home | Borussia Dortmund · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 3.47 | 2.04 |
| xG against per match | 2.86 | 1.75 |
| Shots on target per match | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.04.2026 VfB Stuttgart 0:2 Borussia Dortmund
- 22.11.2025 Borussia Dortmund 3:3 VfB Stuttgart
- 08.02.2025 Borussia Dortmund 1:2 VfB Stuttgart
- 22.09.2024 VfB Stuttgart 5:1 Borussia Dortmund
- 06.04.2024 Borussia Dortmund 0:1 VfB Stuttgart
- 11.11.2023 VfB Stuttgart 2:1 Borussia Dortmund
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund look evenly matched ahead of their Bundesliga meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with the home team’s setting balanced by Borussia Dortmund’s ability to remain competitive away from home. This points toward a contest in which small moments, defensive concentration and the management of attacking phases could have a significant influence.
The scoring outlook is notably open, and both teams are likely to find the net. A high-scoring pattern is therefore more plausible than a tightly controlled match, although the balance between the sides makes it difficult to identify a dependable winner. The most consistent reading is a competitive game with chances at both ends, where VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund may exchange periods of pressure rather than one team dominating from the outset.
What matters before kick-off
Highest-scoring fixture in Bundesliga history
The matchup between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund is the highest-scoring fixture in Bundesliga history, producing 381 goals across 112 meetings.
Away record in Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund has won 17 Bundesliga away matches against VfB Stuttgart, more than at any other opponent in their league history.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.