Hamburger SV — 1. FC Cologne: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.8% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 63.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.4% / 34.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.5% / 15.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.1% / 37.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.8% / 60.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.0% / 78.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.6% / 89.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Hamburger SV
18th place · 0 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away RB Leipzig 0:5
- 06.09.2026 home Mainz 0:5
- 29.08.2026 away Dortmund 0:2
- 16.05.2026 away Leverkusen 1:1
- 10.05.2026 home Freiburg 3:2
1. FC Cologne
12th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Werder Bremen 1:1
- 04.09.2026 away Stuttgart 1:4
- 29.08.2026 home Hoffenheim 3:2
- 16.05.2026 away Bayern Munich 1:5
- 10.05.2026 home Heidenheim 1:3
This season: Hamburger SV at home vs 1. FC Cologne away
| Metric | Hamburger SV · at home | 1. FC Cologne · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.32 | 2.86 |
| xG against per match | 2.78 | 3.47 |
| Shots on target per match | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 14.03.2026 Hamburger SV 1:1 1. FC Cologne
- 02.11.2025 1. FC Cologne 4:1 Hamburger SV
- 18.01.2025 Hamburger SV 1:0 1. FC Cologne
- 02.08.2024 1. FC Cologne 1:2 Hamburger SV
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Hamburger SV and 1. FC Cologne meet in the Bundesliga on 19 September 2026 in a contest that looks finely balanced. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, so the match may be shaped by small tactical details and how effectively each team manages periods of pressure. With confidence only moderate, there is limited justification for expecting a decisive separation between the teams.
The stronger signal points toward an open, high-scoring game, with both Hamburger SV and 1. FC Cologne likely to find the net. That suggests a match in which attacking intent could outweigh defensive caution, creating chances at both ends rather than a tightly controlled encounter. A draw is a credible possibility, but the information also leaves room for either side to edge the contest if it makes better use of its opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Hamburg's poor start to the Bundesliga season
Hamburger SV lost all three of their opening Bundesliga fixtures of the 2026/27 season, conceding 12 goals and failing to score a single goal.
1. FC Cologne's early season results
1. FC Cologne collected four points from their first three league matches, securing a 3-2 victory against Hoffenheim and a 1-1 draw with Werder Bremen.
Cologne team news
1. FC Cologne defender Timo Hübers remains sidelined due to injury, alongside Gian-Luca Waldschmidt.
Head-to-head record at Volksparkstadion
Hamburger SV have remained unbeaten in six of their last seven home matches against 1. FC Cologne at Volksparkstadion.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.