Bayer Leverkusen — RB Leipzig: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.9% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 48.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.6% / 2.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.6% / 8.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 37.5% / 62.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.09.2026
Bayer Leverkusen
10th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Augsburg 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Union Berlin 4:0
- 29.08.2026 away Elversberg 2:3
- 16.05.2026 home Hamburg 1:1
- 09.05.2026 away Stuttgart 1:3
RB Leipzig
7th place · 6 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Hamburg 5:0
- 05.09.2026 away Werder Bremen 1:3
- 29.08.2026 home M'gladbach 3:0
- 16.05.2026 away Freiburg 1:4
- 09.05.2026 home St Pauli 2:1
This season: Bayer Leverkusen at home vs RB Leipzig away
| Metric | Bayer Leverkusen · at home | RB Leipzig · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 3.11 | 1.50 |
| xG against per match | 0.40 | 0.95 |
| Shots on target per match | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.05.2026 Bayer Leverkusen 4:1 RB Leipzig
- 20.12.2025 RB Leipzig 1:3 Bayer Leverkusen
- 25.01.2025 RB Leipzig 2:2 Bayer Leverkusen
- 31.08.2024 Bayer Leverkusen 2:3 RB Leipzig
- 20.01.2024 RB Leipzig 2:3 Bayer Leverkusen
- 19.08.2023 Bayer Leverkusen 3:2 RB Leipzig
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Bayer Leverkusen meet RB Leipzig in a Bundesliga contest that points towards an open and competitive game. The available assessment gives Bayer Leverkusen a slight edge, with high confidence, but it does not suggest a one-sided matchup. RB Leipzig have enough attacking potential in this projection to remain a significant threat, particularly if the hosts leave space during their forward phases.
The main statistical signal is a high-scoring profile, with both teams likely to score. That makes the match difficult to frame as a controlled home performance, even though Bayer Leverkusen hold the stronger position in the outcome assessment. A narrow home win, such as 2:1, is among the likely scorelines, while 1:1 and 2:2 also reflect the expectation of an evenly contested attacking encounter. The balance between Bayer Leverkusen's home advantage and RB Leipzig's scoring prospects should shape the match.
What matters before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen availability
Bayer Leverkusen are missing Kaleb Culbreath (foot), Anton Eichhorn (illness), and Nathan Tella (muscular) for their Matchday 4 Bundesliga encounter against RB Leipzig.
RB Leipzig availability
RB Leipzig have several players ruled out for the fixture at Leverkusen, including Christoph Baumgartner, Lukas Klostermann, Assan Ouédraogo, Marc Gebel, Marc Guiu, and Rocco Reitz.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.