Borussia Monchengladbach — FSV Mainz: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 54.1% |
| 12 | 75.4% | |
| X2 | 70.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.4% / 31.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.3% / 32.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.6% / 54.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.8% / 73.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Borussia Monchengladbach
17th place · 0 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Freiburg 0:5
- 05.09.2026 home Elversberg 3:4
- 29.08.2026 away RB Leipzig 0:3
- 16.05.2026 home Hoffenheim 4:0
- 09.05.2026 away Augsburg 1:3
FSV Mainz
8th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 1:3
- 06.09.2026 away Hamburg 5:0
- 29.08.2026 home Paderborn 0:0
- 16.05.2026 away Heidenheim 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home Union Berlin 1:3
This season: Borussia Monchengladbach at home vs FSV Mainz away
| Metric | Borussia Monchengladbach · at home | FSV Mainz · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.37 | 2.78 |
| xG against per match | 2.31 | 0.32 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| Corners per match | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 19.04.2026 Borussia Monchengladbach 1:1 FSV Mainz
- 05.12.2025 FSV Mainz 0:1 Borussia Monchengladbach
- 07.03.2025 Borussia Monchengladbach 1:3 FSV Mainz
- 25.10.2024 FSV Mainz 1:1 Borussia Monchengladbach
- 02.03.2024 FSV Mainz 1:1 Borussia Monchengladbach
- 06.10.2023 Borussia Monchengladbach 2:2 FSV Mainz
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Borussia Monchengladbach host FSV Mainz in a Bundesliga meeting that points towards an open and competitive contest. The assessment gives FSV Mainz a slight edge, although the moderate confidence indicates that the gap between the teams is limited rather than decisive. Borussia Monchengladbach should have opportunities at home, while FSV Mainz appear capable of causing problems in the attacking phases.
A high-scoring match is expected, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination could produce a game with momentum shifting between the sides, rather than one controlled comfortably by either team. The most plausible scorelines include a draw and narrow wins for either side, which reflects the uncertainty around the final outcome. Overall, FSV Mainz have the marginal advantage, but Borussia Monchengladbach remain firmly involved in the contest and the match could stay finely balanced deep into the second half.
What matters before kick-off
Eugen Polanski dismissed by Borussia Mönchengladbach
Following three consecutive defeats to open the Bundesliga season, Borussia Mönchengladbach parted ways with head coach Eugen Polanski. Interim coach Jan-Moritz Lichte was placed in temporary charge ahead of the fixture against Mainz.
Heavy defeat for Gladbach prior to coaching change
In their previous Bundesliga outing, Borussia Mönchengladbach suffered a heavy 5-0 away defeat against Freiburg, leaving them without a point in the league standings heading into Matchday 4.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.