Bayern Munich — Union Berlin: Win probabilities, 18.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 98.4% |
| 12 | 97.4% | |
| X2 | 4.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.0% / 55.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 99.8% / 0.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 90.1% / 9.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 77.9% / 22.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 61.6% / 38.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 44.1% / 55.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.09.2026
Bayern Munich
4th place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away Elversberg 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away Schalke 04 0:0
- 28.08.2026 home Stuttgart 5:1
- 16.05.2026 home FC Koln 5:1
- 09.05.2026 away Wolfsburg 1:0
Union Berlin
16th place · 1 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.09.2026 home Schalke 04 1:3
- 05.09.2026 away Leverkusen 0:4
- 29.08.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 3:3
- 16.05.2026 home Augsburg 4:0
- 10.05.2026 away Mainz 3:1
This season: Bayern Munich at home vs Union Berlin away
| Metric | Bayern Munich · at home | Union Berlin · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| xG for per match | 4.06 | 0.40 |
| xG against per match | 0.78 | 3.11 |
| Shots on target per match | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| Corners per match | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Bayern Munich 4:0 Union Berlin
- 08.11.2025 Union Berlin 2:2 Bayern Munich
- 15.03.2025 Union Berlin 1:1 Bayern Munich
- 02.11.2024 Bayern Munich 3:0 Union Berlin
- 20.04.2024 Union Berlin 1:5 Bayern Munich
- 24.01.2024 Bayern Munich 1:0 Union Berlin
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Bayern Munich go into this Bundesliga meeting with a clear advantage over Union Berlin. The assessment points strongly toward the hosts, suggesting a match in which Bayern Munich are likely to control possession, territory and the overall attacking rhythm. Union Berlin face the more difficult task of limiting that pressure and finding opportunities to disrupt the hosts’ structure.
The game is expected to have a high-scoring profile, with Bayern Munich offering the greater threat in the final third. At the same time, the outlook for both teams to score is finely balanced, so Union Berlin’s contribution in attack is less certain than the overall expectation of goals. The main signal therefore favours a home win, while the central question is whether Union Berlin can keep the scoreline competitive once Bayern Munich establish control.
What matters before kick-off
Bayern's record unbeaten streak against Union
Bayern Munich remains undefeated in all 14 of their previous Bundesliga encounters with 1. FC Union Berlin (9 wins, 5 draws). In Bundesliga history, Bayern has not faced any other opponent as many times without ever losing.
Bayern's Friday night winning streak
Bayern Munich has won each of their last nine Bundesliga fixtures played on a Friday night. A victory against Union Berlin would mark 10 consecutive Friday wins, equalling the all-time Bundesliga record.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.