SC Paderborn 07 — TSG Hoffenheim: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 42.9% |
| 12 | 79.6% | |
| X2 | 77.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.9% / 32.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.2% / 2.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.1% / 28.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.9% / 69.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.7% / 83.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 4.33 → now 4.10 |
Match preview
SC Paderborn 07 face TSG Hoffenheim in a Bundesliga meeting that points towards an open and competitive contest. The available assessment gives TSG Hoffenheim a slight edge, although the moderate confidence suggests the difference between the sides is not decisive. SC Paderborn 07 should still have opportunities to influence the game, particularly if they can take advantage of the expected attacking space.
The match is assessed as likely to produce goals at both ends, with both teams likely to score. That points to a game in which defensive control may be difficult to maintain for either side, increasing the importance of efficiency in the final third. The most plausible scorelines include a narrow TSG Hoffenheim victory, a draw, or a more open away win, with 1:2, 1:1, and 1:3 among the indicated possibilities. Overall, TSG Hoffenheim hold the stronger outlook, but SC Paderborn 07 remain capable of making the contest close.
What matters before kick-off
TSG Hoffenheim recent schedule and results
TSG Hoffenheim secured a 2-1 home victory over VfB Stuttgart in their previous Bundesliga match before suffering a 2-0 away loss against OFI Crete in the UEFA Europa League in midweek.
Head-to-head record
SC Paderborn 07 have never defeated TSG Hoffenheim in six previous competitive meetings, recording two draws and four losses.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.