1. FC Cologne — TSG Hoffenheim: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.8% |
| 12 | 75.5% | |
| X2 | 67.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.1% / 33.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.4% / 35.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.4% / 57.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.1% / 75.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away Bayern Munich 1:5
- 10.05.2026 home Heidenheim 1:3
- 02.05.2026 away Union Berlin 2:2
- 25.04.2026 home Leverkusen 1:2
- 17.04.2026 away St Pauli 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away M'gladbach 0:4
- 09.05.2026 home Werder Bremen 1:0
- 02.05.2026 home Stuttgart 3:3
- 25.04.2026 away Hamburg 2:1
- 18.04.2026 home Dortmund 2:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.02.2026 1. FC Cologne 2:2 TSG Hoffenheim
- 03.10.2025 TSG Hoffenheim 0:1 1. FC Cologne
- 11.02.2024 TSG Hoffenheim 1:1 1. FC Cologne
- 16.09.2023 1. FC Cologne 1:3 TSG Hoffenheim
- 22.04.2023 TSG Hoffenheim 1:3 1. FC Cologne
- 30.10.2022 1. FC Cologne 1:1 TSG Hoffenheim
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
1. FC Cologne face TSG Hoffenheim in a Bundesliga meeting that points towards an open and competitive contest. The available signals suggest a high-scoring game, with both teams likely to find the net. That expectation should make the match difficult to control for long periods, particularly if either side commits numbers forward early.
There is a slight edge for TSG Hoffenheim, although the moderate confidence indicates a relatively balanced outlook rather than a decisive gap between the teams. The strongest result signal covers the visitors avoiding defeat, while a draw remains a credible possibility in a fixture where attacking contributions from both sides are expected. 1. FC Cologne will have a clear opportunity to make the home setting count, but TSG Hoffenheim appear marginally better placed within the overall assessment.
What matters before kick-off
Bundesliga opening matchday
1. FC Köln face TSG Hoffenheim at the RheinEnergieStadion in Cologne for the opening matchday of the 2026/27 Bundesliga season.
FC Köln squad news
For FC Köln, Luca Waldschmidt and Sebastian Sebulonsen suffered muscular problems during pre-season, while Timo Hübers remains sidelined with a long-term knee injury.
Hoffenheim player availability
Hoffenheim's Tim Lemperle is suspended for the match, while Bernardo and Alexander Prass are sidelined due to injuries.
DFB-Pokal first-round victories
Both sides began their competitive campaign with wins in the DFB-Pokal first round, with FC Köln beating Würzburger Kickers 2-1 and Hoffenheim defeating Erzgebirge Aue 4-0.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.