SV 07 Elversberg — Bayer Leverkusen: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 38.2% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 82.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.6% / 36.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.5% / 12.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.1% / 31.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.5% / 53.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.6% / 72.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 home Preußen Münster 3:0
- 10.05.2026 away Fortuna Dusseldorf 1:3
- 03.05.2026 home Paderborn 5:1
- 25.04.2026 away Darmstadt 3:3
- 17.04.2026 home Karlsruhe 3:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home Hamburg 1:1
- 09.05.2026 away Stuttgart 1:3
- 02.05.2026 home RB Leipzig 4:1
- 25.04.2026 away FC Koln 2:1
- 18.04.2026 home Augsburg 1:2
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SV 07 Elversberg face a demanding Bundesliga fixture against Bayer Leverkusen, with the visitors holding the clearer overall edge. The assessment points to Bayer Leverkusen as the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the match may not follow a completely one-sided script. SV 07 Elversberg should still have opportunities to compete, particularly if they can use their home advantage effectively and stay disciplined without the ball.
The expected pattern is an open, high-scoring contest in which both teams are likely to find the net. That makes the attacking phases especially important: Bayer Leverkusen may have the greater control and quality, while SV 07 Elversberg could contribute to an energetic game by taking risks in possession and pressing for openings. The main analytical signal therefore combines an advantage for the visitors with the possibility of goals at both ends. A narrow Bayer Leverkusen win appears more consistent with the available assessment than a comfortable result, but the draw remains a credible alternative.
What matters before kick-off
Historic Bundesliga debut for SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg make their historical top-flight debut against Bayer Leverkusen, becoming the 59th club to play in the Bundesliga after earning three promotions across four years.
Onyeka available to face parent club Bayer Leverkusen
Young midfielder Francis Onyeka is on loan at SV Elversberg from Bayer Leverkusen and is available to play against his parent club in the season opener.
Carles Martínez makes Bundesliga debut with Bayer Leverkusen
New head coach Carles Martínez leads Bayer Leverkusen into his first Bundesliga match after taking charge of the club in June.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.
