Match intelligence

SV 07 Elversberg — Bayer Leverkusen: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026

League: Bundesliga (Germany) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
SV 07 Elversberg3
:
2Bayer Leverkusen
Locked signal BTTS Probability 64.0% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 17.5% Home win SV 07 Elversberg
X 21.4% Draw
W2 61.0% Away win Bayer Leverkusen
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X282.9%
Both teams to score
Yes63.6%
Totals 2.5
Over68.1%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X38.2%
1279.0%
X282.9%
Both teams to scoreYes/No63.6% / 36.4%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 96.0% / 4.0%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 87.5% / 12.5%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 68.1% / 31.9%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 46.5% / 53.5%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 27.6% / 72.4%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 14.3% / 85.7%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

SV 07 Elversberg × Bayer Leverkusen
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 4.0%
0:1 5.9%
0:2 8.1%
0:3 6.3%
0:4 3.6%
0:5 1.7%
1
1:0 2.5%
1:1 9.3%
1:2 9.6%
1:3 7.4%
1:4 4.3%
1:5 2.0%
2
2:0 2.1%
2:1 4.9%
2:2 5.7%
2:3 4.4%
2:4 2.6%
2:5 1.2%
3
3:0 0.8%
3:1 1.9%
3:2 2.2%
3:3 1.7%
3:4 1.0%
3:5 0.5%
4
4:0 0.2%
4:1 0.6%
4:2 0.7%
4:3 0.5%
4:4 0.3%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.1%
5:1 0.1%
5:2 0.2%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:29.6%
1:19.3%
0:28.1%
1:37.4%
0:36.3%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 17.05.2026 home Preußen Münster 3:0
  • 10.05.2026 away Fortuna Dusseldorf 1:3
  • 03.05.2026 home Paderborn 5:1
  • 25.04.2026 away Darmstadt 3:3
  • 17.04.2026 home Karlsruhe 3:0

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 16.05.2026 home Hamburg 1:1
  • 09.05.2026 away Stuttgart 1:3
  • 02.05.2026 home RB Leipzig 4:1
  • 25.04.2026 away FC Koln 2:1
  • 18.04.2026 home Augsburg 1:2

Head-to-head

No previous meetings found in the available data.

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

SV 07 Elversberg face a demanding Bundesliga fixture against Bayer Leverkusen, with the visitors holding the clearer overall edge. The assessment points to Bayer Leverkusen as the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the match may not follow a completely one-sided script. SV 07 Elversberg should still have opportunities to compete, particularly if they can use their home advantage effectively and stay disciplined without the ball.

The expected pattern is an open, high-scoring contest in which both teams are likely to find the net. That makes the attacking phases especially important: Bayer Leverkusen may have the greater control and quality, while SV 07 Elversberg could contribute to an energetic game by taking risks in possession and pressing for openings. The main analytical signal therefore combines an advantage for the visitors with the possibility of goals at both ends. A narrow Bayer Leverkusen win appears more consistent with the available assessment than a comfortable result, but the draw remains a credible alternative.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Match fact

Historic Bundesliga debut for SV Elversberg

SV Elversberg make their historical top-flight debut against Bayer Leverkusen, becoming the 59th club to play in the Bundesliga after earning three promotions across four years.

Team news

Onyeka available to face parent club Bayer Leverkusen

Young midfielder Francis Onyeka is on loan at SV Elversberg from Bayer Leverkusen and is available to play against his parent club in the season opener.

Team news

Carles Martínez makes Bundesliga debut with Bayer Leverkusen

New head coach Carles Martínez leads Bayer Leverkusen into his first Bundesliga match after taking charge of the club in June.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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