Bayern Munich — VfB Stuttgart: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.0% |
| 12 | 88.2% | |
| X2 | 19.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.6% / 32.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.7% / 1.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 84.8% / 15.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 69.1% / 30.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 33.2% / 66.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home FC Koln 5:1
- 09.05.2026 away Wolfsburg 1:0
- 02.05.2026 home Heidenheim 3:3
- 25.04.2026 away Mainz 4:3
- 19.04.2026 home Stuttgart 4:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 2:2
- 09.05.2026 home Leverkusen 3:1
- 02.05.2026 away Hoffenheim 3:3
- 26.04.2026 home Werder Bremen 1:1
- 19.04.2026 away Bayern Munich 2:4
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 19.04.2026 Bayern Munich 4:2 VfB Stuttgart
- 06.12.2025 VfB Stuttgart 0:5 Bayern Munich
- 28.02.2025 VfB Stuttgart 1:3 Bayern Munich
- 19.10.2024 Bayern Munich 4:0 VfB Stuttgart
- 04.05.2024 VfB Stuttgart 3:1 Bayern Munich
- 17.12.2023 Bayern Munich 3:0 VfB Stuttgart
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Bayern Munich enter this Bundesliga fixture with a clear advantage over VfB Stuttgart. The available assessment points strongly toward the hosts controlling the match, while the high confidence level indicates that Bayern Munich are viewed as the clearly stronger side. Their attacking outlook is also positive, suggesting a game in which the home team should create sustained pressure and several opportunities in the final third.
VfB Stuttgart are nevertheless expected to contribute to an open contest, with both teams considered likely to score. That points to a match where Bayern Munich’s overall strength may be tested by Stuttgart’s ability to find moments in attack. The balance of the assessment still favours the hosts, but the projected high-scoring profile makes this less about a quiet, controlled victory and more about Bayern Munich managing an energetic game while converting their attacking superiority.
What matters before kick-off
Bundesliga season opener
The Matchday 1 fixture between defending champions Bayern Munich and VfB Stuttgart at the Allianz Arena officially opens the 2026/27 Bundesliga season.
Rematch of DFB-Pokal final
The two sides met in the DFB-Pokal final in May 2026, where Bayern Munich secured a 3-0 win over VfB Stuttgart behind a hat-trick from Harry Kane.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.