RB Leipzig — Borussia Monchengladbach: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.0% |
| 12 | 79.8% | |
| X2 | 38.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.8% / 36.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.5% / 31.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.6% / 85.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away Freiburg 1:4
- 09.05.2026 home St Pauli 2:1
- 02.05.2026 away Leverkusen 1:4
- 24.04.2026 home Union Berlin 3:1
- 18.04.2026 away Ein Frankfurt 3:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home Hoffenheim 4:0
- 09.05.2026 away Augsburg 1:3
- 03.05.2026 home Dortmund 1:0
- 25.04.2026 away Wolfsburg 0:0
- 19.04.2026 home Mainz 1:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.04.2026 RB Leipzig 1:0 Borussia Monchengladbach
- 28.11.2025 Borussia Monchengladbach 0:0 RB Leipzig
- 29.03.2025 Borussia Monchengladbach 1:0 RB Leipzig
- 09.11.2024 RB Leipzig 0:0 Borussia Monchengladbach
- 17.02.2024 RB Leipzig 2:0 Borussia Monchengladbach
- 23.09.2023 Borussia Monchengladbach 0:1 RB Leipzig
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
RB Leipzig enter this Bundesliga meeting with a clear home advantage in the assessment, although the confidence behind that view is moderate rather than overwhelming. Their attacking profile points toward an open contest, and the expected match pattern suggests that Borussia Monchengladbach should also have opportunities in front of goal. This makes a high-scoring game more plausible than a tightly controlled encounter.
Borussia Monchengladbach are therefore likely to remain involved even if RB Leipzig control more of the match and create the better chances. Both teams scoring is a reasonable expectation, which leaves the visitors with a route into the game despite the hosts’ stronger overall position. The most consistent scoreline indications are 2:1 and 1:1, with 2:0 also among the possibilities if RB Leipzig manage to limit the visitors’ finishing opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
RB Leipzig team news
RB Leipzig midfielders Assan Ouedraogo and Christoph Baumgartner are ruled out of the Bundesliga opening fixture due to injuries.
Borussia Mönchengladbach availability
Borussia Mönchengladbach midfielder Jens Castrop and defender Yukhym Konoplya are sidelined after sustaining injuries during pre-season.
Recent DFB-Pokal results
Both teams come off convincing DFB-Pokal victories, with RB Leipzig winning 6-0 against Eintracht Trier and Borussia Mönchengladbach securing a 5-0 win over TSV Schott Mainz.
RB Leipzig home scoring record
RB Leipzig have scored in 29 consecutive home Bundesliga matches, setting a new club record.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.