FSV Mainz — SC Paderborn 07: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.1% |
| 12 | 79.8% | |
| X2 | 35.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.5% / 40.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.7% / 4.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.8% / 14.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.5% / 34.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.6% / 56.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.1% / 74.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.6% / 87.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away Heidenheim 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home Union Berlin 1:3
- 03.05.2026 away St Pauli 2:1
- 25.04.2026 home Bayern Munich 3:4
- 19.04.2026 away M'gladbach 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 away Darmstadt 2:0
- 08.05.2026 home Karlsruhe 2:2
- 03.05.2026 away Elversberg 1:5
- 26.04.2026 home Schalke 04 2:3
- 18.04.2026 away Hannover 1:1
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 29.02.2020 FSV Mainz 2:0 SC Paderborn 07
- 05.10.2019 SC Paderborn 07 1:2 FSV Mainz
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FSV Mainz have the clearer overall position in this Bundesliga meeting with SC Paderborn 07, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be overstated. The available assessment gives the hosts the stronger outcome signal, while also pointing towards an open match rather than a cautious contest. FSV Mainz are therefore expected to take the initiative, but SC Paderborn 07 have enough attacking potential in this projection to remain involved.
The scoring outlook is high, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That combination creates a match in which FSV Mainz’s advantage may depend on how well they manage the spaces created by an attacking game. The most prominent scoreline is a narrow home win, with a draw also a meaningful possibility and a more controlled home victory appearing as another scenario. Overall, the analysis favours FSV Mainz, but the expected competitiveness of SC Paderborn 07 makes this a measured rather than emphatic call.
What matters before kick-off
Convincing DFB-Pokal victories ahead of the Bundesliga opener
Ahead of Matchday 1 of the 2026/27 Bundesliga season, both clubs advanced from the first round of the DFB-Pokal. FSV Mainz 05 routed VfB Krieschow 9-0, while SC Paderborn 07 beat Phönix Lübeck 4-2.
Mainz dominance in recent head-to-head matches
FSV Mainz 05 hold a strong recent head-to-head record against SC Paderborn 07, winning three of their previous four encounters alongside one draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.