Velez Sarsfield — Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
55.5%
Home win
Velez Sarsfield
X
27.7%
Draw
W2
16.8%
Away win
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X83.2%
Both teams to score
No54.0%
Totals 2.5
Under56.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.2% |
| 12 | 72.3% | |
| X2 | 44.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.0% / 54.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.7% / 10.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.5% / 28.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.0% / 56.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.9% / 77.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.8% / 96.2% |
Goal distribution model
Velez Sarsfield × Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
10.3%
0:1
5.5%
0:2
2.8%
0:3
0.8%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
12.7%
1:1
13.0%
1:2
4.6%
1:3
1.2%
1:4
0.2%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
11.6%
2:1
9.4%
2:2
3.8%
2:3
1.0%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
6.3%
3:1
5.1%
3:2
2.1%
3:3
0.6%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
2.6%
4:1
2.1%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.8%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.0%
1:012.7%
2:011.7%
0:010.3%
2:19.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.10.2026 home Platense 2:2
- 21.09.2026 home Tigre 3:2
- 11.09.2026 away Newells Old Boys 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Dep. Riestra 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.10.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 0:3
- 19.09.2026 home Dep. Riestra 0:0
- 11.09.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 0:2
- 05.09.2026 home Boca Juniors 2:2
- 30.08.2026 away Independiente 3:0
This season: Velez Sarsfield at home vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza away
| Metric | Velez Sarsfield · at home | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 8–5–2 | 3–3–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.20 | 0.79 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.80 | 1.64 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 36% |
Head-to-head · Last 1 meetings
Velez Sarsfield wins0
Draws0
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza wins1
Goals per match5.00
Both teams scored1/1
Over 2.5 goals1/1
- 03.04.2026 Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 3:2 Velez Sarsfield
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.90 → now 1.73 |
| X | was 3.10 → now 3.30 |
| W2 | was 4.50 → now 5.25 |
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