CA Platense — CA Lanus: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
31.0%
Home win
CA Platense
X
33.3%
Draw
W2
35.7%
Away win
CA Lanus
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X269.0%
Both teams to score
No57.6%
Totals 2.5
Under66.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.3% |
| 12 | 66.7% | |
| X2 | 69.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.4% / 57.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 85.6% / 14.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 62.1% / 37.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 33.6% / 66.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 15.1% / 84.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.8% / 98.2% |
Goal distribution model
CA Platense × CA Lanus
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
14.4%
0:1
12.3%
0:2
7.4%
0:3
2.6%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
11.2%
1:1
15.0%
1:2
7.2%
1:3
2.6%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
6.2%
2:1
6.6%
2:2
3.5%
2:3
1.3%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
2.0%
3:1
2.1%
3:2
1.1%
3:3
0.4%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
0.5%
4:1
0.5%
4:2
0.3%
4:3
0.1%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.0%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:115.0%
0:014.4%
0:112.3%
1:011.2%
0:27.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.10.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 2:2
- 20.09.2026 home Newells Old Boys 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 1:2
- 04.09.2026 home Dep. Riestra 1:1
- 31.08.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 away Newells Old Boys 0:0
- 22.09.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 2:1
- 14.09.2026 away Dep. Riestra 3:0
- 06.09.2026 home Defensa y Justicia 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Boca Juniors 0:1
This season: CA Platense at home vs CA Lanus away
| Metric | CA Platense · at home | CA Lanus · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 2–5–6 | 4–3–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.62 | 1.15 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.31 | 1.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% | 46% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 38% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
CA Platense wins1
Draws3
CA Lanus wins2
Goals per match1.50
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 02.04.2026 CA Lanus 0:0 CA Platense
- 20.09.2025 CA Lanus 2:1 CA Platense
- 09.03.2025 CA Platense 0:0 CA Lanus
- 11.11.2024 CA Lanus 0:0 CA Platense
- 11.02.2024 CA Lanus 3:0 CA Platense
- 14.09.2023 CA Platense 2:1 CA Lanus
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.30 → now 3.00 |
| W2 | was 2.35 → now 2.63 |
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