Independiente Rivadavia — CA Tigre: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
53.5%
Home win
Independiente Rivadavia
X
28.5%
Draw
W2
18.0%
Away win
CA Tigre
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X82.0%
Both teams to score
No52.2%
Totals 2.5
Under55.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.0% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 46.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.7% / 10.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.4% / 27.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.7% / 55.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.5% / 76.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.0% / 96.0% |
Goal distribution model
Independiente Rivadavia × CA Tigre
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
10.3%
0:1
5.4%
0:2
3.1%
0:3
0.9%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
11.9%
1:1
13.5%
1:2
5.0%
1:3
1.4%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
11.0%
2:1
9.4%
2:2
4.0%
2:3
1.1%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
5.9%
3:1
5.1%
3:2
2.2%
3:3
0.6%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
2.4%
4:1
2.0%
4:2
0.9%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.8%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.5%
1:011.9%
2:011.0%
0:010.3%
2:19.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 home Gimnasia L.P. 1:1
- 21.09.2026 away Barracas Central 1:0
- 12.09.2026 home Aldosivi 4:3
- 06.09.2026 away River Plate 1:3
- 31.08.2026 home Racing Club 3:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.10.2026 away Argentinos Jrs 1:2
- 21.09.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 2:3
- 13.09.2026 home Rosario Central 0:1
- 05.09.2026 away Gimnasia L.P. 1:2
- 01.09.2026 home Barracas Central 0:0
This season: Independiente Rivadavia at home vs CA Tigre away
| Metric | Independiente Rivadavia · at home | CA Tigre · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 10–2–3 | 2–5–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.13 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.27 | 1.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 87% | 57% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
Independiente Rivadavia wins2
Draws1
CA Tigre wins1
Goals per match2.75
Both teams scored2/4
Over 2.5 goals1/4
- 02.04.2026 CA Tigre 0:2 Independiente Rivadavia
- 23.08.2025 CA Tigre 1:1 Independiente Rivadavia
- 15.02.2025 Independiente Rivadavia 1:4 CA Tigre
- 09.12.2024 CA Tigre 0:2 Independiente Rivadavia
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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