Atletico Tucuman — CA Rosario Central: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
25.6%
Home win
Atletico Tucuman
X
32.2%
Draw
W2
42.2%
Away win
CA Rosario Central
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X274.4%
Both teams to score
No53.3%
Totals 2.5
Under60.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.8% |
| 12 | 67.8% | |
| X2 | 74.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.7% / 53.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.5% / 12.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 67.8% / 32.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.1% / 60.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.1% / 80.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.8% / 92.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.7% / 97.3% |
Goal distribution model
Atletico Tucuman × CA Rosario Central
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
12.5%
0:1
11.6%
0:2
8.8%
0:3
3.8%
0:4
1.2%
0:5
0.3%
1
1:0
8.1%
1:1
15.0%
1:2
8.4%
1:3
3.6%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
4.8%
2:1
6.2%
2:2
4.0%
2:3
1.7%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
1.5%
3:1
2.0%
3:2
1.3%
3:3
0.6%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
0.4%
4:1
0.5%
4:2
0.3%
4:3
0.1%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.0%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:115.0%
0:012.5%
0:111.6%
0:28.8%
1:28.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 home Barracas Central 2:3
- 21.09.2026 away Aldosivi 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home River Plate 1:2
- 07.09.2026 away Racing Club 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Belgrano 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.10.2026 away Banfield 1:1
- 20.09.2026 home Argentinos Jrs 1:0
- 13.09.2026 away Tigre 1:0
- 06.09.2026 home Newells Old Boys 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Gimnasia L.P. 1:2
This season: Atletico Tucuman at home vs CA Rosario Central away
| Metric | Atletico Tucuman · at home | CA Rosario Central · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 2–8–4 | 7–4–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.86 | 1.13 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 53% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Atletico Tucuman wins0
Draws3
CA Rosario Central wins3
Goals per match1.67
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 05.04.2026 CA Rosario Central 2:1 Atletico Tucuman
- 10.08.2025 Atletico Tucuman 0:0 CA Rosario Central
- 08.02.2025 CA Rosario Central 3:1 Atletico Tucuman
- 26.08.2024 CA Rosario Central 1:0 Atletico Tucuman
- 26.01.2024 Atletico Tucuman 1:1 CA Rosario Central
- 20.08.2023 CA Rosario Central 0:0 Atletico Tucuman
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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