Estudiantes de La Plata — CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
43.7%
Home win
Estudiantes de La Plata
X
31.9%
Draw
W2
24.3%
Away win
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X75.7%
Both teams to score
No55.3%
Totals 2.5
Under62.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.7% |
| 12 | 68.1% | |
| X2 | 56.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.7% / 55.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.1% / 12.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 65.9% / 34.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 37.4% / 62.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.1% / 92.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.4% / 97.6% |
Goal distribution model
Estudiantes de La Plata × CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
12.9%
0:1
8.4%
0:2
4.5%
0:3
1.4%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
12.7%
1:1
14.7%
1:2
5.8%
1:3
1.8%
1:4
0.4%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.3%
2:1
8.4%
2:2
3.8%
2:3
1.1%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
4.0%
3:1
3.6%
3:2
1.6%
3:3
0.5%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
1.3%
4:1
1.2%
4:2
0.5%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.0%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:114.7%
0:012.9%
1:012.7%
2:09.3%
0:18.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.10.2026 home Gimnasia Mendoza 3:0
- 22.09.2026 away Lanus 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Platense 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 0:1
- 31.08.2026 home Newells Old Boys 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 0:3
- 20.09.2026 home Boca Juniors 0:2
- 13.09.2026 away Independiente 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 1:0
- 01.09.2026 away Instituto 0:1
This season: Estudiantes de La Plata at home vs CA San Lorenzo de Almagro away
| Metric | Estudiantes de La Plata · at home | CA San Lorenzo de Almagro · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 9–2–3 | 2–8–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.64 | 0.40 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 0.73 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 7% |
| Both teams scored | 21% | 27% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Estudiantes de La Plata wins0
Draws5
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro wins1
Goals per match1.17
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals0/6
- 03.04.2026 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 1:0 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 05.11.2024 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 1:1 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 13.02.2024 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 1:1 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 20.09.2023 Estudiantes de La Plata 0:0 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
- 21.06.2023 Estudiantes de La Plata 1:1 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
- 07.08.2022 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 0:0 Estudiantes de La Plata
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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