Racing Club Avellaneda — CA Independiente Avellaneda: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
46.8%
Home win
Racing Club Avellaneda
X
30.2%
Draw
W2
23.0%
Away win
CA Independiente Avellaneda
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X77.0%
Both teams to score
No51.1%
Totals 2.5
Under56.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.0% |
| 12 | 69.8% | |
| X2 | 53.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.9% / 51.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.2% / 10.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.1% / 28.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.3% / 77.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.7% / 90.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.6% / 96.4% |
Goal distribution model
Racing Club Avellaneda × CA Independiente Avellaneda
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
10.8%
0:1
6.8%
0:2
4.1%
0:3
1.3%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
11.3%
1:1
14.3%
1:2
6.0%
1:3
1.9%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.5%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
4.3%
2:3
1.4%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
4.6%
3:1
4.4%
3:2
2.1%
3:3
0.7%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
1.7%
4:1
1.6%
4:2
0.8%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.5%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:114.3%
1:011.3%
0:010.8%
2:09.5%
2:19.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.10.2026 away Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2:1
- 19.09.2026 home Sarmiento Junin 3:1
- 14.09.2026 away Huracan 1:2
- 07.09.2026 home Atl. Tucuman 1:2
- 31.08.2026 away Ind. Rivadavia 1:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.10.2026 home Instituto 1:4
- 19.09.2026 away Union de Santa Fe 2:1
- 13.09.2026 home San Lorenzo 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Central Cordoba 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Gimnasia Mendoza 0:3
This season: Racing Club Avellaneda at home vs CA Independiente Avellaneda away
| Metric | Racing Club Avellaneda · at home | CA Independiente Avellaneda · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 4–4–5 | 6–3–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.15 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.23 | 1.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 64% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Racing Club Avellaneda wins1
Draws3
CA Independiente Avellaneda wins2
Goals per match1.00
Both teams scored1/6
Over 2.5 goals0/6
- 04.04.2026 CA Independiente Avellaneda 1:0 Racing Club Avellaneda
- 28.09.2025 Racing Club Avellaneda 0:0 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 16.03.2025 CA Independiente Avellaneda 1:1 Racing Club Avellaneda
- 25.08.2024 Racing Club Avellaneda 0:0 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 24.02.2024 CA Independiente Avellaneda 0:1 Racing Club Avellaneda
- 30.09.2023 Racing Club Avellaneda 0:2 CA Independiente Avellaneda
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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