Velez Sarsfield — Defensa y Justicia: Win probabilities, 17.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.4% |
| 12 | 72.0% | |
| X2 | 44.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 41.9% / 58.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 67.3% / 32.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.6% / 60.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.0% / 92.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.8% / 97.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 away Boca Juniors 1:1
- 03.08.2026 home Independiente 1:0
- 30.07.2026 away Talleres Cordoba 3:1
- 24.07.2026 home Instituto 1:0
- 11.05.2026 home Gimnasia L.P. 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Newells Old Boys 2:1
- 01.08.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 0:3
- 29.07.2026 home Dep. Riestra 2:1
- 24.07.2026 home Aldosivi 1:1
- 04.05.2026 away Gimnasia Mendoza 1:2
This season: Velez Sarsfield at home vs Defensa y Justicia away
| Metric | Velez Sarsfield · at home | Defensa y Justicia · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 6–3–2 | 3–2–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.22 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.64 | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 44% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.02.2026 Defensa y Justicia 1:1 Velez Sarsfield
- 03.08.2024 Velez Sarsfield 3:0 Defensa y Justicia
- 31.03.2023 Defensa y Justicia 0:0 Velez Sarsfield
- 25.06.2022 Defensa y Justicia 1:1 Velez Sarsfield
- 28.07.2021 Velez Sarsfield 0:0 Defensa y Justicia
- 28.03.2021 Defensa y Justicia 1:1 Velez Sarsfield
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Velez Sarsfield hold a slight but meaningful edge over Defensa y Justicia in this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture. The assessment points toward a medium-scoring match, with the home side better placed overall but not separated by a wide margin. That suggests a contest in which Velez Sarsfield may control more of the game, while Defensa y Justicia remain capable of making the matchup competitive.
The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the match could develop in several different ways. A 1:1 draw is among the likely scorelines, while 1:0 and 2:0 also reflect the home side's advantage. Overall, the outlook favors Velez Sarsfield, with the draw also a realistic outcome and limited support for a Defensa y Justicia victory.
What matters before kick-off
Diego Valdes sidelined for Velez Sarsfield
Diego Valdes scored Velez Sarsfield's goal in their 1-1 draw against Boca Juniors, but suffered a physical ailment that leaves him out of the squad against Defensa y Justicia.
Velez Sarsfield's unbeaten start
Velez Sarsfield remain undefeated in the 2026 Clausura tournament after recording three wins and a 1-1 draw against Boca Juniors in their opening four matches.
Defensa y Justicia's recent result
Defensa y Justicia head into the match at Jose Amalfitani following a 2-1 home victory over Newell's Old Boys in their previous Clausura fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.