CA Lanus — CA Independiente Avellaneda: Win probabilities, 17.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.1% |
| 12 | 66.9% | |
| X2 | 60.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 38.3% / 61.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 84.4% / 15.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 30.1% / 69.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 12.8% / 87.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.4% / 98.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.08.2026 away Talleres Cordoba 3:0
- 06.08.2026 away Union de Santa Fe 1:2
- 03.08.2026 home Instituto 0:1
- 26.07.2026 home San Lorenzo 1:0
- 10.05.2026 away Argentinos Jrs 0:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Platense 0:1
- 03.08.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 0:1
- 31.07.2026 home Newells Old Boys 1:0
- 26.07.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 2:0
- 10.05.2026 away Rosario Central 1:3
This season: CA Lanus at home vs CA Independiente Avellaneda away
| Metric | CA Lanus · at home | CA Independiente Avellaneda · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 4–4–2 | 3–3–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.60 | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 64% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 13.02.2026 CA Independiente Avellaneda 2:0 CA Lanus
- 13.10.2025 CA Independiente Avellaneda 0:2 CA Lanus
- 06.04.2025 CA Lanus 1:1 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 18.10.2024 CA Lanus 0:2 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 28.05.2023 CA Independiente Avellaneda 1:1 CA Lanus
- 13.08.2022 CA Lanus 1:1 CA Independiente Avellaneda
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Lanus face CA Independiente Avellaneda in the Primera LPF, Clausura, with the hosts holding a slight but credible edge in the pre-match assessment. The outlook points toward a controlled contest rather than an open exchange, as the scoring expectation is low and the home side appears better placed to manage the key phases of the match. That advantage is not large enough to remove the possibility of a draw, but CA Lanus are the more likely team to make the difference.
The main scenario is a tight game in which defensive structure carries considerable weight. A clean sheet is considered likely, and the projected scorelines of 1:0, 1:1 and 0:0 all underline how narrow the margins may be. CA Independiente Avellaneda could remain competitive by keeping the match compact, while CA Lanus will need patience to turn their home advantage into clear chances. Overall, the analysis favours CA Lanus, with the draw also a significant possibility in a low-scoring encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Managerial transition at Independiente
Following their Copa Argentina elimination and the exit of Gustavo Quinteros, interim coach Carlos Matheu leads Independiente against Lanús. Newly appointed head coach Jadson Viera will officially take over on Tuesday.
Lanús's convincing away victory against Talleres
In their previous Torneo Clausura fixture, Mauricio Pellegrino's Lanús secured a 3-0 away win against Talleres Córdoba.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.