CA River Plate (ARG) — Argentinos Juniors: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.3% |
| 12 | 67.8% | |
| X2 | 60.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 37.5% / 62.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 84.7% / 15.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 56.9% / 43.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 29.6% / 70.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.3% / 98.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 away Tigre 0:1
- 02.08.2026 home Rosario Central 0:1
- 29.07.2026 away Gimnasia L.P. 0:1
- 25.07.2026 home Barracas Central 0:1
- 24.05.2026 home Belgrano 2:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.08.2026 home Racing Club 2:1
- 01.08.2026 away Belgrano 1:0
- 29.07.2026 home Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 3:0
- 23.07.2026 away Sarmiento Junin 3:2
- 17.05.2026 home Belgrano 1:1
This season: CA River Plate (ARG) at home vs Argentinos Juniors away
| Metric | CA River Plate (ARG) · at home | Argentinos Juniors · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 7–1–6 | 4–2–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.43 | 1.22 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 56% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 13.02.2026 Argentinos Juniors 1:0 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 25.05.2024 Argentinos Juniors 1:0 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 28.01.2024 CA River Plate (ARG) 1:1 Argentinos Juniors
- 21.08.2023 Argentinos Juniors 3:2 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 12.02.2023 CA River Plate (ARG) 2:1 Argentinos Juniors
- 03.10.2022 Argentinos Juniors 0:3 CA River Plate (ARG)
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA River Plate (ARG) enter this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting with a slight but credible advantage over Argentinos Juniors. The available assessment gives the hosts a high-confidence edge, although it points toward a controlled and low-scoring contest rather than an open attacking exchange. That combination suggests that CA River Plate (ARG) may have the stronger platform, but the margin between the sides is not expected to be large.
Argentinos Juniors remain capable of keeping the match balanced, particularly if they limit space and maintain their defensive shape. The outlook for both teams to score is evenly split, so the game could develop around a narrow home win, a draw, or a scoreless stalemate. The main analytical signal favors CA River Plate (ARG) avoiding defeat, while the projected scorelines reinforce the expectation of a tight encounter in which a single goal could decide the result.
What matters before kick-off
Contrasting form ahead of kickoff
River Plate, managed by Eduardo Coudet, lost their opening four matches of the 2026 Torneo Clausura by a 1-0 scoreline without scoring a goal. In contrast, Argentinos Juniors entered the match with a perfect record after winning all four of their opening fixtures.
Thiago Almada's debut
River Plate's marquee signing Thiago Almada was made available to make his official debut as a starter against Argentinos Juniors.
Schedule congestion for River Plate
Following their match against Argentinos Juniors, River Plate travel to Colombia to face Independiente Santa Fe in the first leg of the Copa Sudamericana round of 16.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.