Newell's Old Boys — Deportivo Riestra AFBC: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.5% |
| 12 | 67.8% | |
| X2 | 53.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 35.3% / 64.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 56.3% / 43.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 28.7% / 71.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 4.1% / 95.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.2% / 98.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 1:2
- 02.08.2026 home Boca Juniors 2:2
- 31.07.2026 away Independiente 0:1
- 25.07.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 1:0
- 04.05.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 2:0
- 02.08.2026 home Barracas Central 0:1
- 29.07.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 1:2
- 26.07.2026 home Boca Juniors 3:0
- 02.05.2026 away Lanus 0:0
This season: Newell's Old Boys at home vs Deportivo Riestra AFBC away
| Metric | Newell's Old Boys · at home | Deportivo Riestra AFBC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 2–5–3 | 0–3–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.90 | 0.22 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.20 | 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 11% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 22% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 16.02.2026 Deportivo Riestra AFBC 1:1 Newell's Old Boys
- 27.09.2024 Deportivo Riestra AFBC 3:3 Newell's Old Boys
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Newell's Old Boys enter this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture with a clear but narrow advantage over Deportivo Riestra AFBC. The outlook points toward a controlled match in which the hosts are more likely to avoid defeat, although the margin between the teams is not expected to produce an open contest. A home victory is possible, but the draw remains a significant part of the overall picture.
The scoring outlook is notably restrained. Newell's Old Boys may look to establish territorial control without taking excessive risks, while Deportivo Riestra AFBC are likely to keep the game compact and limit the space available in the final third. That combination makes a low-scoring encounter the most plausible scenario, with a clean sheet also a realistic possibility. Overall, the analytical lean is toward Newell's Old Boys or a draw, with the match potentially decided by one moment rather than sustained attacking pressure.
What matters before kick-off
Suspension for Newell's Old Boys
Newell's Old Boys player Jerónimo Russo is suspended for the match following his sent-off against Defensa y Justicia in their previous game.
Deportivo Riestra coming off a win
Deportivo Riestra enter the fixture following a 2-0 home victory over Estudiantes de La Plata in the Clausura tournament.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.