CA San Lorenzo de Almagro — Union de Santa Fe: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.1% |
| 12 | 67.7% | |
| X2 | 66.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 37.8% / 62.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 84.8% / 15.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 56.9% / 43.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 29.6% / 70.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.3% / 98.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Huracan 0:2
- 04.08.2026 away Central Cordoba 0:1
- 28.07.2026 home Gimnasia Mendoza 1:0
- 26.07.2026 away Lanus 0:1
- 10.05.2026 away River Plate 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.08.2026 home Central Cordoba 1:2
- 06.08.2026 home Lanus 2:1
- 01.08.2026 away Gimnasia Mendoza 0:2
- 25.07.2026 away Platense 2:2
- 12.05.2026 away Belgrano 0:2
This season: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro at home vs Union de Santa Fe away
| Metric | CA San Lorenzo de Almagro · at home | Union de Santa Fe · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 4–2–4 | 3–3–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.10 | 1.42 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.30 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.02.2026 Union de Santa Fe 0:0 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
- 15.06.2024 Union de Santa Fe 2:1 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
- 05.02.2024 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 0:0 Union de Santa Fe
- 05.09.2023 Union de Santa Fe 1:1 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
- 25.02.2023 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 1:0 Union de Santa Fe
- 20.07.2022 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 2:2 Union de Santa Fe
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro and Union de Santa Fe appear evenly matched ahead of their meeting in the Primera LPF, Clausura. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, pointing instead to a contest likely to be decided by small details and disciplined execution. With moderate confidence in this reading, the match may remain balanced for long periods.
The scoring outlook is low, suggesting a cautious game in which clear chances could be limited. A clean sheet is considered likely, so the opening goal, if it comes, would carry particular importance. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro may look to use home advantage to control the rhythm, while Union de Santa Fe have a credible chance of avoiding defeat. The draw also fits the broader picture of a closely contested encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Orlando Gill suspended for San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo goalkeeper Orlando Gill is suspended for this match after receiving a red card in the previous round against Huracán. José Devecchi is set to start in goal.
Facundo Gulli sidelined for San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo will be without Facundo Gulli for the encounter with Unión de Santa Fe due to an injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.