CA Belgrano de Cordoba — Independiente Rivadavia: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.9% |
| 12 | 69.6% | |
| X2 | 51.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.9% / 55.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.0% / 12.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 67.5% / 32.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.3% / 60.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.2% / 80.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.9% / 92.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.8% / 97.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CA Belgrano de Cordoba meet Independiente Rivadavia in the Primera LPF, Clausura, with the hosts holding a slight but credible edge. The matchup points toward a controlled game rather than an open contest, and the available assessment gives high confidence to the home side avoiding defeat. That advantage appears narrow, however, so Independiente Rivadavia remain capable of making the game difficult and taking something from it.
The scoring outlook is low, which places emphasis on defensive organization and the value of the first goal. The expectation that both teams score is evenly balanced, meaning the match could develop through a small number of decisive moments rather than sustained attacking pressure. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0, and 0:0, reinforcing the view of a close encounter. Overall, CA Belgrano de Cordoba look better positioned, but the likely margin is limited and a draw remains a substantial possibility.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.