Estudiantes de La Plata — Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.3% |
| 12 | 69.1% | |
| X2 | 53.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 36.4% / 63.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 57.5% / 42.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 30.3% / 69.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 12.9% / 87.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.4% / 98.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 away Dep. Riestra 0:2
- 05.08.2026 away Boca Juniors 0:1
- 01.08.2026 home Defensa y Justicia 3:0
- 26.07.2026 home Independiente 0:2
- 10.05.2026 home Racing Club 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Barracas Central 2:0
- 02.08.2026 away Aldosivi 2:1
- 29.07.2026 home River Plate 1:0
- 24.07.2026 away Racing Club 1:2
- 14.05.2026 away River Plate 0:2
This season: Estudiantes de La Plata at home vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata away
| Metric | Estudiantes de La Plata · at home | Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 6–1–3 | 6–1–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.60 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 42% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.02.2026 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 0:0 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 08.12.2025 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 0:1 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 19.10.2025 Estudiantes de La Plata 2:0 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 13.04.2025 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 1:1 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 28.07.2024 Estudiantes de La Plata 4:1 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 25.02.2024 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 0:0 Estudiantes de La Plata
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Estudiantes de La Plata enter this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting with a slight but well-supported edge over Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata. The assessment points toward a cautious contest in which territorial control and defensive organisation may matter more than sustained attacking pressure. The home side are favoured to avoid defeat, while the gap between the teams remains narrow enough to keep a draw firmly in consideration.
The scoring outlook is restrained, with a clean sheet considered likely. That makes a match decided by a single important moment more plausible than an open exchange of chances. A 1:0 result for Estudiantes de La Plata fits the overall profile, although 0:0 and 1:1 also reflect the expectation of limited attacking output. Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata will therefore remain competitive if they can maintain their shape and prevent the hosts from turning their home advantage into clear opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Estudiantes schedule context
The Clásico Platense is played in the middle of Estudiantes' Copa Libertadores round of 16 tie against Universidad de Chile, following a 1-1 draw in the first leg.
Gimnasia form and head-to-head record
Gimnasia y Esgrima entered Matchday 5 on a three-match winning streak in Torneo Clausura 2026, while aiming to end a 23-year winless streak away against Estudiantes at stadium UNO.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.