Velez Sarsfield — CA Platense: Win probabilities, 05.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.0% |
| 12 | 70.0% | |
| X2 | 48.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 66.0% / 34.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 37.6% / 62.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 18.0% / 82.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.2% / 92.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.5% / 97.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 21.09.2026 home Tigre 3:2
- 11.09.2026 away Newells Old Boys 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Dep. Riestra 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away River Plate 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Newells Old Boys 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 1:2
- 04.09.2026 home Dep. Riestra 1:1
- 31.08.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 0:1
- 23.08.2026 away Barracas Central 2:1
This season: Velez Sarsfield at home vs CA Platense away
| Metric | Velez Sarsfield · at home | CA Platense · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 8–4–2 | 3–5–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.14 | 0.85 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 46% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.03.2026 CA Platense 0:2 Velez Sarsfield
- 19.07.2025 CA Platense 0:0 Velez Sarsfield
- 29.01.2025 Velez Sarsfield 0:1 CA Platense
- 25.07.2024 CA Platense 0:2 Velez Sarsfield
- 14.03.2023 Velez Sarsfield 1:1 CA Platense
- 12.06.2022 Velez Sarsfield 0:1 CA Platense
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Velez Sarsfield have a slight edge over CA Platense in this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting. The assessment carries high confidence, with the overall outlook pointing toward a cautious contest rather than an open attacking game. Velez Sarsfield are the stronger side on the available signal, while CA Platense face a difficult task in turning the balance in their favor.
The scoring outlook is low, and a clean sheet is considered likely, which suggests that defensive organization could have a significant influence on the match. The most plausible scorelines are narrow, with 1:0 standing alongside 1:1 and 0:0 as the leading possibilities. Overall, the available indicators favor Velez Sarsfield, but the expected margin is limited and a draw remains a credible alternative.
What matters before kick-off
Platense injury updates
Defender Ignacio Vázquez is ruled out due to a hamstring muscle injury. Juan Ignacio Saborido and Pablo Ferreira are also unavailable for Platense due to knee and foot injuries respectively.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.