Argentinos Juniors — CA Tigre: Win probabilities, 04.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.4% |
| 12 | 70.5% | |
| X2 | 48.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.6% / 55.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.7% / 31.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.5% / 59.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.2% / 79.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.4% / 91.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.0% / 97.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Rosario Central 0:1
- 13.09.2026 home Gimnasia L.P. 1:1
- 07.09.2026 away Barracas Central 0:0
- 30.08.2026 home Aldosivi 2:1
- 25.08.2026 away Lanus 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 21.09.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 2:3
- 13.09.2026 home Rosario Central 0:1
- 05.09.2026 away Gimnasia L.P. 1:2
- 01.09.2026 home Barracas Central 0:0
- 24.08.2026 home Central Cordoba 2:1
This season: Argentinos Juniors at home vs CA Tigre away
| Metric | Argentinos Juniors · at home | CA Tigre · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 10–6–0 | 2–5–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.31 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 54% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.03.2026 CA Tigre 1:1 Argentinos Juniors
- 20.07.2025 CA Tigre 2:1 Argentinos Juniors
- 31.01.2025 Argentinos Juniors 1:0 CA Tigre
- 18.07.2024 Argentinos Juniors 0:2 CA Tigre
- 06.03.2023 CA Tigre 0:1 Argentinos Juniors
- 12.07.2022 Argentinos Juniors 2:1 CA Tigre
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Argentinos Juniors have a slight edge over CA Tigre in this Primera LPF, Clausura matchup. The assessment carries high confidence, although the expected character of the game points toward a controlled contest rather than an open attacking affair. The available scoring signal suggests a low-scoring match, which makes small tactical details and efficiency in limited chances particularly important.
The scoring outlook does not clearly favor both teams finding the net, with that possibility described as essentially balanced. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0, and 0:0, reinforcing the expectation of a tight encounter. Overall, Argentinos Juniors have the stronger side of the matchup, while CA Tigre remain capable of keeping the game close. The main analytical signal is therefore toward Argentinos Juniors avoiding defeat, rather than a strong expectation of a decisive home victory.
What matters before kick-off
Recent form and results
Argentinos Juniors enter the fixture having taken just two points from their last three league matches after a 1-0 defeat to Rosario Central. CA Tigre arrive on a three-game losing streak in Torneo Clausura, most recently falling 3-2 against Vélez Sarsfield.
Tigre managerial update
CA Tigre head coach Diego Dabove offered his resignation amid a poor run of results but reversed his decision a day later after receiving full backing from the squad.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.