Estudiantes de La Plata — Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: Win probabilities, 05.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.1% |
| 12 | 73.6% | |
| X2 | 41.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.6% / 9.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.3% / 25.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.7% / 74.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.09.2026 away Lanus 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Platense 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 0:1
- 31.08.2026 home Newells Old Boys 0:0
- 23.08.2026 away Sarmiento Junin 0:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Dep. Riestra 0:0
- 11.09.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 0:2
- 05.09.2026 home Boca Juniors 2:2
- 30.08.2026 away Independiente 3:0
- 22.08.2026 away Gimnasia L.P. 3:2
This season: Estudiantes de La Plata at home vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza away
| Metric | Estudiantes de La Plata · at home | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 8–2–3 | 3–3–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.54 | 0.85 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.54 | 1.54 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 23% | 38% |
Head-to-head · Last 1 meetings
- 18.03.2026 Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 1:2 Estudiantes de La Plata
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Estudiantes de La Plata enter this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture with a slight edge over Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza, although the low confidence attached to that assessment suggests a relatively open contest. The available outlook leans toward the hosts, but it does not indicate a decisive advantage, leaving room for the match to develop in several directions.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with 1:1, 2:0 and 1:0 among the likely scorelines. That range reflects some uncertainty over how the match will unfold, while the assessment of both teams scoring is essentially balanced. Overall, Estudiantes de La Plata have the more favorable analytical position, but the margin over Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza is modest.
What matters before kick-off
Estudiantes' recent losing streak
Estudiantes de La Plata enter the match on a three-game losing streak across all competitions, including a 1-0 elimination by Platense in the Copa Argentina.
Gimnasia Mendoza's recent result
In their previous league fixture, Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza played out a 0-0 draw at home against Deportivo Riestra.
Previous 2026 head-to-head result
During the 2026 Torneo Apertura, Estudiantes de La Plata secured a 2-1 away victory against Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.