Velez Sarsfield — CA Independiente Avellaneda: Win probabilities, 03.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.7% |
| 12 | 66.3% | |
| X2 | 63.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.1% / 50.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.2% / 12.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.4% / 30.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.2% / 59.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.9% / 80.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.3% / 91.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.9% / 97.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 03.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.07.2026 away Talleres Cordoba 3:1
- 24.07.2026 home Instituto 1:0
- 11.05.2026 home Gimnasia L.P. 0:1
- 04.05.2026 home Newells Old Boys 1:1
- 27.04.2026 home Union de Santa Fe 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.07.2026 home Newells Old Boys 1:0
- 26.07.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 2:0
- 10.05.2026 away Rosario Central 1:3
- 02.05.2026 away San Lorenzo 2:1
- 24.04.2026 away Dep. Riestra 0:2
This season: Velez Sarsfield at home vs CA Independiente Avellaneda away
| Metric | Velez Sarsfield · at home | CA Independiente Avellaneda · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 5–3–2 | 3–3–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 31.01.2026 CA Independiente Avellaneda 1:1 Velez Sarsfield
- 17.08.2025 Velez Sarsfield 2:1 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 12.02.2025 CA Independiente Avellaneda 3:0 Velez Sarsfield
- 27.05.2024 CA Independiente Avellaneda 1:1 Velez Sarsfield
- 31.01.2024 Velez Sarsfield 0:1 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 27.08.2023 CA Independiente Avellaneda 2:1 Velez Sarsfield
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Velez Sarsfield face CA Independiente Avellaneda in the Primera LPF, Clausura, with the match scheduled for 3 August 2026. The assessment points to an evenly matched contest, with moderate confidence and no clear separation between the teams. That makes the result difficult to distinguish before kick-off, with the home side holding only a slight structural advantage in the 1X market signal.
The expected character of the match is low-scoring. Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, so there is no strong indication that the game will produce goals at both ends. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 0:0 and 1:0, all of which point toward a tight encounter decided by limited chances and small margins. Velez Sarsfield may have a modest edge from playing at home, but CA Independiente Avellaneda remain fully capable of keeping the match level.
What matters before kick-off
Strong start to the 2026 Clausura
Both teams enter matchday 3 with a perfect record after winning their opening two matches of the 2026 Torneo Clausura. Vélez Sarsfield defeated Instituto and Talleres, while Independiente beat Estudiantes and Newell's Old Boys.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.