CA Sarmiento Junin — Independiente Rivadavia: Win probabilities, 03.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.1% |
| 12 | 67.1% | |
| X2 | 75.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.1% / 12.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.6% / 31.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.5% / 60.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.3% / 80.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.0% / 92.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.8% / 97.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 03.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.07.2026 away Banfield 2:3
- 23.07.2026 home Argentinos Jrs 2:3
- 03.05.2026 away Belgrano 0:4
- 25.04.2026 home Tigre 1:0
- 20.04.2026 away Rosario Central 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.07.2026 home Huracan 2:1
- 26.07.2026 away Atl. Tucuman 0:0
- 10.05.2026 home Union de Santa Fe 1:2
- 03.05.2026 away Aldosivi 1:1
- 26.04.2026 home Gimnasia Mendoza 5:1
This season: CA Sarmiento Junin at home vs Independiente Rivadavia away
| Metric | CA Sarmiento Junin · at home | Independiente Rivadavia · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 5–1–3 | 4–4–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.22 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.63 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 04.02.2026 Independiente Rivadavia 2:1 CA Sarmiento Junin
- 26.05.2024 CA Sarmiento Junin 0:1 Independiente Rivadavia
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Sarmiento Junin face Independiente Rivadavia in a matchup that points towards a cautious and relatively balanced contest. The available assessment gives Independiente Rivadavia a slight edge, with high confidence, although the gap between the teams is not expected to produce an open game. The overall scoring outlook is low, suggesting that defensive organisation and patience could be more important than sustained attacking pressure.
The strongest indication is towards Independiente Rivadavia avoiding defeat, while a draw remains a realistic possibility. Both teams scoring is considered difficult to call, which fits the expectation of a tight match with limited clear chances. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 0:0 and 0:1, all pointing to a contest where small details may decide the outcome. CA Sarmiento Junin will need to keep the game controlled, while Independiente Rivadavia may look to use its narrow advantage without taking unnecessary risks.
What matters before kick-off
Recent League Results
Sarmiento, managed by Facundo Sava, enter the match following a 3-2 defeat against Banfield. Meanwhile, Independiente Rivadavia secured a 2-1 home victory over Huracán in their previous fixture.
Venue and Match Referee
The matchday 3 fixture of the 2026 Torneo Clausura will take place at Estadio Eva Perón in Junín, with Pablo Echavarría appointed as the main referee.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.