Vancouver Whitecaps FC — Saint Louis City SC: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.6% |
| 12 | 81.8% | |
| X2 | 32.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.3% / 38.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.8% / 3.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.7% / 12.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.4% / 30.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.1% / 51.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.0% / 71.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Vancouver Whitecaps FC enter this MLS meeting with a moderate but clear advantage over Saint Louis City SC. The available assessment points toward the hosts being clearly stronger, although the confidence level is not absolute. That suggests Vancouver Whitecaps FC should be expected to control more of the match, particularly if they can turn their territorial advantage into consistent chances.
The game is projected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to score. That combination gives Saint Louis City SC a credible route into the contest even if Vancouver Whitecaps FC remain the stronger side overall. The main score scenarios are 2:1 and 2:0, while 1:1 also reflects the possibility that Saint Louis City SC can withstand pressure and make the most of their opportunities. Overall, the outlook favours Vancouver Whitecaps FC, but the likely attacking approach from both sides could keep the match competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability report
According to the MLS availability report, Vancouver Whitecaps FC have Kenji Cabrera, Belal Halbouni, Édier Ocampo, Kwasi Poku, and Ralph Priso ruled out. St. Louis CITY SC are without Kyle Hiebert and Célio Pompeu, while Tomas Ostrak and Jaziel Orozco are listed as questionable.
St. Louis CITY SC's unbeaten streak
St. Louis CITY SC enter the match at BC Place carrying a 13-match unbeaten streak.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.