Seattle Sounders — New York Red Bulls: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.1% |
| 12 | 77.9% | |
| X2 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.7% / 27.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.7% / 25.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 54.7% / 45.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 35.2% / 64.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.0% / 80.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Chicago Fire 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away FC Cincinnati 1:1
- 20.08.2026 home Austin FC 1:2
- 17.08.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 0:2
- 02.08.2026 away Portland Timbers 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Philadelphia Union 1:3
- 23.08.2026 home Chicago Fire 1:1
- 20.08.2026 home Nashville SC 0:1
- 16.08.2026 away Atlanta Utd 1:2
- 02.08.2026 home Orlando City 3:2
This season: Seattle Sounders at home vs New York Red Bulls away
| Metric | Seattle Sounders · at home | New York Red Bulls · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 4–2–4 | 3–2–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.80 | 2.30 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 28.05.2023 Seattle Sounders 1:0 New York Red Bulls
- 15.09.2019 Seattle Sounders 4:2 New York Red Bulls
- 14.06.2018 New York Red Bulls 2:1 Seattle Sounders
- 19.03.2017 Seattle Sounders 3:1 New York Red Bulls
- 20.06.2016 New York Red Bulls 2:0 Seattle Sounders
- 31.05.2015 Seattle Sounders 2:1 New York Red Bulls
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Seattle Sounders have a slight but credible edge over New York Red Bulls in this MLS meeting. The available assessment points toward a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match, with the home side holding the stronger overall position. The 1X signal also supports a cautious interpretation in which Seattle Sounders are favoured to avoid defeat, while a draw remains a realistic possibility.
The match is expected to produce an open scoring pattern, and both teams are likely to find the net. That combination suggests a game with chances at both ends and limited separation on the scoreboard. The most plausible scorelines include 1-1, 2-1 and 2-2, reflecting the balance between Seattle Sounders’ home advantage and New York Red Bulls’ potential to contribute offensively. Overall, the hosts deserve preference, but the evidence points to a close, high-scoring encounter rather than a clear margin.
What matters before kick-off
Seattle Sounders Injury Absences
The Seattle Sounders face several squad absences for the match, with Pedro de la Vega, Jesús Ferreira, Yeimar Gómez Andrade, Nikola Petković, and Jackson Ragen all ruled out due to injuries.
New York Red Bulls Begin Road Trip
The match against the Seattle Sounders at Lumen Field marks the start of a four-match road trip for the New York Red Bulls.
Head-to-Head Record in Seattle
The New York Red Bulls have not won a match in Seattle against the Sounders since 2010 and have failed to earn a single point there since 2013.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.