Seattle Sounders — New York Red Bulls: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.1% |
| 12 | 77.9% | |
| X2 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.7% / 27.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.7% / 25.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 54.7% / 45.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 35.2% / 64.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.0% / 80.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Seattle Sounders have a slight but credible edge over New York Red Bulls in this MLS meeting. The available assessment points toward a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match, with the home side holding the stronger overall position. The 1X signal also supports a cautious interpretation in which Seattle Sounders are favoured to avoid defeat, while a draw remains a realistic possibility.
The match is expected to produce an open scoring pattern, and both teams are likely to find the net. That combination suggests a game with chances at both ends and limited separation on the scoreboard. The most plausible scorelines include 1-1, 2-1 and 2-2, reflecting the balance between Seattle Sounders’ home advantage and New York Red Bulls’ potential to contribute offensively. Overall, the hosts deserve preference, but the evidence points to a close, high-scoring encounter rather than a clear margin.
What matters before kick-off
Seattle Sounders Injury Absences
The Seattle Sounders face several squad absences for the match, with Pedro de la Vega, Jesús Ferreira, Yeimar Gómez Andrade, Nikola Petković, and Jackson Ragen all ruled out due to injuries.
New York Red Bulls Begin Road Trip
The match against the Seattle Sounders at Lumen Field marks the start of a four-match road trip for the New York Red Bulls.
Head-to-Head Record in Seattle
The New York Red Bulls have not won a match in Seattle against the Sounders since 2010 and have failed to earn a single point there since 2013.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.